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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 October

Some observations:

1) The market now has 1072 resistance overhead. They couldn't trigger a short squeeze because likely the shorts were timid and there was nothing to squeeze to help power things.

2) If tomorrow is a "thrust" down out of a triangle then shorts would likely finally jump on it. Only to be reversed. Any gap downs tomorrow I would bet get covered.

4) The focus is on the GDP report this week and is no doubt on a lot of people's minds. Bull's savior or curse?

5) DOW is squatting on its log scale trendline. The NASDAQ played catch-up to the downside today. It cannot be said that the NASDAQ remains "strong" as it dropped 1.20% versus a green DOW. Very unusual and it seems to have to do with the DOW holding its trendline. Weird. The market thinks that chart is important. More evidence of a fractured market. (or manipulated heh)

In the end, I am taking best guesses at the wave structure. The market is not too too oversold just yet (well McClellan's is), so an early thrust down that would get the bears to pile in finally would likely reverse.

But it could head up just as well. The squiggles are a bit mushy. On the other hand, traders are wary of going short because of GDP Thursday. And yet the market dribbles downward....

The market rarely and magically gets back to a position just so you can "go long" or "go short" for a nice big swing trade. It does sometimes eventually but usually through a circuitous route.
Even with sound plan, emotions lay waste a great plan.

Its grinding both sides I think at the moment.
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