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Friday, October 9, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 October

Nothing much has changed. Either the market is trying to make a new high come Monday in an extended Minor 5th wave, or Friday's high was a Minute [b] wave of a Minor wave 4 triangle that has yet to develop.

New closing highs for 2009 today. VIX weekly closed under the 200MA for the first time since early 2007. But VIX hourly RSI is buried. However it hasn't even had a chance to pull some positive divergence so it could get hammered a bit more come Monday and develop the divergence after making a new VIX low under 22.19.

There are a few ways to label the rise from the 1019 low so its open to interpretation.

If Monday shoots for a new high, there could be yet another gap up over 1070 resistance and a move toward 1080.

If a Minor wave 4 triangle plays out, then its probably due for a complex wave which is usually the [c] wave. This [c] wave down would cover at least one gap up possibly two out of the three created this week.

It seems to be about the DOW getting close to 10000. DOW was up more than the other indexes today.

Technically if Monday the SPX and DOW tries to make a new high above 1080 its going to pierce its upper BB and the VIX may pierce its lower BB on the dailys.

Also Monday is the 67th trading day of Intermediate (C) and that would equal Intermediate (A) exactly in length trading days on the cash index.
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