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Monday, October 5, 2009

Everything On The Brink of Something

Same old, same old. Dollar down, equities up, gold up, oil up, etc etc etc.

Everything seems to be at a nexus. Oil is trying to backtest its broken trendline. Dollar is butting up against its long-running down trendline. Gold is hanging above $1000. The VIX backtested its wedge breakout And the SPX is butting up against its wave (i) orthodox low of 1045.85.

Something has to give soon. And to be sure, I am not sure how it will turn out.

But the main indicator I am watching is the VIX. If it breaks down hard again and gets stuffed back inside its little trading range and wedge, its not good for bears.

What does seem to fit is that all the things I mentioned turn the bears's way at once tomorrow or latest Wednesday.

VIX backtests and keeps trucking upwards.

OIL withers back under $70 for good.

SPX tops no higher than 1044 and heads to a wave 5 low under 1019.

Dollar stages a breakout of its downtrend line.

Gold gets hammered back under $1000.

The opposite of that stuff happening is a bullish market that wants to start another leg up, possibly another ABC again (I'd have to relabel my triple intermediate ZZ back to a double which I generally don't like that count) in P2 and make a run for the 1100 gap and DOW 10000.

We shall see. If there is no fear, then there can be no real selling. And 9-1 up volume ratio days usually don't end on such an abrupt note and selloff the next day though. But in P3 they can.

We've only had 3 waves down from 1080. We need another new low under 1019 to confirm P3 . If 1069.62 is taken out to the upside, it cannot be a series of 1's and 2's. Bottom line: If its P3 then it damn well better get its act together real quick and show its colors.

Again keep your eye on that fear (or lack of).
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