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Friday, October 2, 2009

Junk's Volume

I think the high yield junk bonds represent well the amount of "risk" that P2 induced people to take. Speculating and holding high yield "junk" debt was all the rage this year (and REIT's) and the "rage" wasn't based on reality in my opinion. You'll notice that junk's chart from March doesn't look too raggedy at all. Its a very clean sharp rocket up pattern.

I have Junk's waveform in a very nice triple zigzag form since March. I tried to count it other ways but I keep coming back to the triple ZZ form. I think it is one reason why I like the triple zigzag form for the SPX and such. You cannot have more than 3 zigzags in a correction by EW guidelines. Its practically a rule.

What really catches my eye is the huge volume red candle. A candle like that is not indicative of a "pullback". Its more like an exit. Yet the candle is not the longest down candle on the chart. So people still were buying up that junk somewhat. So it seems very distributive to say the least.

(disclosure: I didn't buy Junk on the way up but I did sell it short from above $38)
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