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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

SPX, VIX, Dollar, GOLD, Oil

The 5 charts above are intrinsically linked for P2. The fact that they ALL seem to be in the same "position" lurching toward a "target" on each seems more than a neat coincidence. Lets talk about each:

SPX Daily:
What can I say? The upper trendline seems like a magnet and would fit nicely with a near 50% retrace for P2 and a 5-3-5 zizgag. The technicals would line up likely.

The weekly still holds long-term, strength. When it breaks free of the wedge for good, it will start to rise.

Ah yes, the doom of the dollar is now being talked about daily as I predicted it would be before a bottom could form. "Save the dollar?" It'll be perfect. I suppose Timmy and Benny will save the dollar and the big media people who said that Timmy and Benny were destroying it will obviously say that "they had no choice" but to save it. There are nefarious shenanigans (criminal more like it - but thats another story) in there somewhere no doubt, but the bottom line is the dollar carry trade is probably getting crowded.

And besides when assets sell, they sell for cash...

GOLD: I have a triangle breakout price target of $1085-1087. That target is derived roughly by figuring the price width of the contracting triangle added to the "[e]" low. This is also the range where C = .618 x A

Last ditch breakout and one would suppose Oil at least makes a minimum of a 38% retrace from its peak which it has yet to quite manage. A short squeeze may bring higher than expected prices and bring a gas price spike.

POP QUIZ: What is a big factor in America's job approval rating of the President? Answer: the price of gas. Social mood turns sour on high gas. (I guess you could see that in 2008)This is fact. Nothing provokes more venom from the masses than gas price spikes....

What is in common with all my charts? They all show that they require just a bit more to meet their patterns nicely.

SPX -Likely in a iii of [v] 5 of (C) or (iii) of [v] of (C)
VIX - Probably sets a new low on market high
Dollar - Requires another small 5 waves down (on the 5 minute charts) to final lows.
GOLD - Will likely need a wave [iv] sideways then a spike to a Minute [v] high.
OIL - Appears to be in a Minute [iii] of C of (Y).

And yes it has been challenging tracking each chart and figuring their patterns, but its starting to become fine-tuned.

Just when EW theory reveals the likely turns is when most people will abandon EW theory altogether. Just saying. I expect it.

I too was feeling gloomy and searching for answers to the markets madness last few days wanting to make bullish charts and considering 2 year long rallies.......when I went back to basics and realize that these 5 simple charts are still very much linked in the fate of the markets.

And their patterns will end....and then we'll see. That's all we can do.
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