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Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Squiggle Counts and Variations

Beware this chart is a glimpse into my brain at the moment and the jumbled up wave markings are indicative of just how many counts I am juggling in my head. And I think thats how a P2 should end for an EW technican. But it does make some sense.

If we are in a Minor Blue wave 4 or 5 as I suggested on tonight's update, then that might imply some kind of sideways action as usually wave 4's are sideways-type waves (particularly since wave 4 currently looks like wave 2 at the moment and lacks alternation). But the only sideways wave that would work well and maintain key trendlines up is some kind of contracting or ascending triangle.

And all the while the market would move sideways closer to the big rising trendline from the March lows and then its forced to break up and trace a 5th wave to a new high or an attempt at new high.

The other variations are that the market just makes a beeline for a new high and reverses when it peters out. I don't favor this at this very second.

But getting back to the simplification theme, the trading range is 1019 - 1069. Whichever price mark breaks first is the key. A new low under 1019 will confirm, I think at the least, an intermediate trend change and by my account, P2 top at 1080. A break above 1069 will obviously confirm the market is attempting new highs, and I have it as a 5 of (C) of P2.

I do think that there may be some wild gyrations still and that the gap up from today has an excellent chance of getting closed to the downside even if the market attempts a new high thereafter.

There are likely little mistakes on my chart just ignore them I kind of splattered markers all over the place.

So 1019 or 1069. Place your bets. The upside bullish market internals suggest 1069 will be breeched first but I harbor no illusions.

You can see the market internal indicators of volume and VIX on my squiggle chart on the bottom.

PS - For those asking about switching out from an "ABC" to a "1-5" count and remarking that now it doesn't look right, the subwaves of each leg really hasn't changed. All your doing is simply taking the blue A-B-C and replacing it with 1-2-3 and then finding a "4" and seeing if "5" tops out.

I just posted this chart last week

in which many agreed with. Switch the Blue ABC markers with 1-2-3... Its not that much of a stretch. Yes I know the DOW overlapped a bit but maybe that indicates it will not make a new high? I do expect some non-confirmations to occur between indexes and secondaries (yes like the transports)

Like I said. Its time to simplify. 1019 or 1069. I haven't totally given up on 1080 being the true top (and my other triple zigzag count), its just we have to let the market decide that.

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