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Sunday, November 8, 2009

30 Year Bonds and More Musings


I haven't done Bond counts much in the past. I just never got around to it. EWI of course tracks bonds (I think 10 yr) but as always, when I go to chart something, I do it on my own to always get a fresh perspective on things. I place the labels and make the determinations based on my own experience and judgement.

But bonds are very important. The entire bear market Supercycle will start to focus on the true problems of the world: too much debt. I of course think that the debt crisis will grow worse. And for those who require a "catalyst", then look no further than the growing debt problem. And a wave [3] down in bonds will break the long-running bond bull market. Indeed it will be a "point of recognition" moment when and if it comes.

The psychology of government debt, is at such a complacent stage that it is hard for anyone to imagine a complete collapse of the bond market. Tell me which adviser do you know of can see the train wreck coming? Yet when that long-rising trendline breaks what do you think will happen?

Think the FED can save the world? Which asset class do you think they will focus on when it all comes unglued? Equities? Corporate debt? MBS debt? No! Like a Ponzi mountain climber suffering from hypothermia, he will sacrifice the limbs to save the core. And the core that keeps the FED in business is US Treasury Bonds.

But like the Sun-Tzu saying, "He who attempts to defend everything, will end up defending nothing" will ring exceptionally true for the FED. They have already set that stage in motion by bloating their balance sheet with more worthless paper than they can unload. The truth of the matter the Fed is just as bankrupt as every other big entity out there.

Its all rather sad and maddening at the same time. I want to vomit the more I ponder it all. One thing that is most predictable is that the various government entities will travel the most precise path along the entire way to perfectly exacerbate the situation. Indeed at the height of a ponzi debt problem, their only answer is to take on even more!

In EWI's "all the same market" which we had glimpses of last fall 2008, everything will sell in a great panic of a Primary wave [3]. No asset class will remain untouched. "Diversity" which has been indoctrinated into our investor souls, will likely be a fool's game.

But bonds and their typical "flight to safety" mantra will probably hold for a while in the opening stages of P3 (which I think we are at). So suffice it to say, is that bonds will probably track unevenly with the general markets for a while longer. Its not until we reach the middle game of P3, that all asset classes will "align" for a massive selloff. In that regard, you really cannot predict bond moves using a comparison to the equity markets.

But in the equity market's "point of recognition" moment in a "third of a third" P3 (That would be Minute [iii] of Minor 3 of Intermediate (3) of Primary [3] - and as you can see that is a long way to go indeed if we even have this all correct to begin with....), bonds should be racing every other asset class equally to the bottom.

Anyways, thats the theory.

Ok Now some more wave musings:

I have shown (and indeed its on a few of my charts) my "box method" of finding the middle of the thirds. This is a point where prices do not overlap. You can see that on my long term Gold chart for instance and my natural gas chart. These can be accessed of course under my public list at Stockcharts.com. Link on the left (feel free to vote once a day - it buys me free subscription time)

And since posting a general postulate of where wave 2's retrace, you can see on my bond chart that the wave 2's did indeed revisit the prices candles of the previous middle thirds.

One last wave trick for today: When trying to determine where the meat of a wave 3 is, just look at the RSI low point. This goes along with the wave theory that wave 3's are usually the strongest and this is almost universally revealed by this low RSI spot. For instance if I was examining a small scale wave, I'd probably have to use a 30 or 60 minute chart to help identify things.

But for the daily bond chart that I show, using a daily works best since my chart covers months at a time. And you can see that the low of the RSI typically is the lowest at one of the final subwaves of the larger wave 3. This is a uniform "guideline" that can be applied to anything that has the signature of a 5 wave move.


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