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Tuesday, November 17, 2009

E-minis

Using the base channel: blue - formed by waves (i) and (ii); acceleration: green - formed by wave (iii) advance; and deceleration: red - formed by wave (iv) pullback, it appears there would be one last subwave up to a new high that is missing.

If this was the ending diagonal scenario of P2, then after the high was in, in theory, prices should dramatically decline. How to interpret a dramatic decline? Well a quick shot back under 1100 and likely continuation in bearish impulse waves back to close the open chart gap at 1069.3 - 1072.31 over the course of a day or two or so for starters.

The overall wave structure count supports that any new high today would interpret very well as a wave [v] peak forming from the 1029 low. If that peak was not P2 peak itself, an equal interpretation is that it would be a Minor A wave peak of a third Intermediate sized zigzag. That would imply a B wave pullback of perhaps 38%. But of course the P2 Ending Diagonal scenario would power right through support in some kind of short order.

So both wave count interpretations support the same basic set of moves over the near term. A new high perhaps then a pullback decline. Simply put, any decline that holds upper support in the upper half of the 1000's (say 1080 or 1095) could be a B wave. Any decline that powers though support would be something else, perhaps the ED scenario. The nature of the wave structure on any decline and market internals is what we use to help determine just what is going on. So again, any new high today, the greater risk in my opinion would still be to the long side.

Sentiment noticeably went up a couple points to on $BPSPX.

Good luck
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