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Monday, November 2, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 November (correction)

The NASDAQ has that falling wedge look. Close to breaking over the upper trendline.

CORRECTION: The VIX did not close back inside its BB. I was looking at the wrong chart

Primary count is that Minute [i] finished at the low today. My general target of 1027-1030 was hit at 1029 although it certainly went in a roundabout way to get there. The wave iv of (v) of [i] traced an expanded flat.

I think the market required that energy to propel downward and trap a lot of shorts who mistook the down move for something bigger. That allowed a bounce. It was unable to create enough energy on the initial open. And besides, the open was a logical [C] wave of a wave iv expanded flat, which I should have listed on my squiggle chart over the weekend as I first proposed that expanded flat during trading hours last Friday.

The moves today no doubt shook out early buying bulls and trapped late shorts.

The thing I think about Minute wave [ii] is that it has to have the right "look" and should take a certain time percentage to trace out.

The squiggles show that tomorrow may be a gap up day and that the gap may remain uncovered. There is also a scenario for a weak or even gap down opening. See squiggle chart.

I am looking for some form of sharp zigzag for Minute [ii] and its obvious target is 1066. Which means it probably will not be Minute [ii]'s true target. wave 2's are free to retrace any amount of wave 1. But if we can identify the (b) wave, it'll make for setting any wave [ii] target easier.

I am giving the market the benefit of the doubt as the SPX had four solid hits in a gently sloping trendline between 1034 - 1029 over the course of 8 trading hours. There is solid support here. This should be enough to form a decent base to launch a decent wave [ii] from. Also double positive divergence on the 60 minute RSI shows a bounce potential.

(There are bearish potentials - a series of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 for example - I should not assume the market will bounce from this point. Those positive divergences can and will be rolled right over many times in a P3 wave just as it did in P1. However, like I said, I'll give the market the benefit of the doubt for the FOMC meeting)

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