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Monday, November 16, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 Nov (Update 7:40pm)

Update: 7:40 pm: Squiggles supports a move tomorrow to a new high. 1118 is a good target but it need only make a higher high than today. There is possibility of early weakness to touch the base channel (blue). That would lower the 1118 target of course.

50% retrace from the March low for the SPX is at 1121.

So it appears a 5 wave move up from 1029 recent SPX low is over or nearly over after a high tomorrow for the final squiggles. However,the waves count pretty decent with today's move being the high of this 5 wave move though.

Ok so what would this high be? I will give the market the benefit of the doubt for now and suppose its an A wave peak of the last ABC zigzag to P2 peak.

The up volume ratio at one point today was screaming at over 20:1. It ended the day at a pretty good clip above 7:1.

Some observations is that the VIX really didn't get hammered today and the market drop in the afternoon saw a lot of money flowing out very quickly. So even after a 20:1 up humping and better than 10-1 most of the day, you can see how much skepticism there is on the price drop this afternoon.

However the SPX closed above 1100 finally.

So if the alternate is in play, a big C wave ending diagonal, then we should see a dramatic price reversal this week back down.

But my primary count calls for an A wave peak or nearly so.

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