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Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 Nov (updated 5:40pm)

Everything still appears to be on target for a final Minute [v] peak. Today was weak but backtesting 1001-1002 support easily held on a low volume day.

So the squiggles actually point toward an up open tomorrow as a wave iii of (v) of [v] is due. The green trend line I drew is an interesting target line at about 1018-1019. 50% Fib retrace resistance then will come into play.

Then I half expect some kind of hard reversal down. Its OPEX week after all.

The extreme is that if this is an ending diagonal for P2 that has been playing out for months, we could see a high volume overthrow situation and a surge upwards tomorrow that even takes the bulls by surprise. Yet again if its overthrow in an ED pattern, again a hard reversal is called for back down once it exhausts itself. This is not my primary count but I wanted to mention the possible price behavior of what an ending diagonal is capable of doing.

What would cause an overthrow? When every retail including his mother shorts the SPX at 1020 and sets a stop not far above and big money decides to play the contrarian and powers right through those stops.

And then of course when every bear is impaled and their bloody heads are on a stick, big money then exits the peak market surge in a big way and the market gets sucked back down in a vacuum and bears are left out because they are of course, headless and incapable of making a trade due to the fact that their fingers have been physically separated from their body.

Well that would probably be me anyways.
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