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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 November (corrected chart)

I would have to assume that today's peak was the (a) wave of Minute [ii]. There is a chance it was a Minute [ii] peak as the dollar has retraced deeply for its Minute [ii]. However, I am no longer sure the dollar has even made its final low as its daily chart sports negative divergence and I am just not sure its low is going to hold.

It will have to rally pronto but I don't have full faith in it.

I will check McClellan's when the data comes out later, but if it hasn't strengthened back to the zero line today (I wouldn't think it did) then stocks need more time and likely more price retrace. UPDATE: It was only up to -52.87, so it probably needs more strengthening.

Today seemed like a waste for the bulls but they held above support and the whole move in the afternoon seemed like a MM walkdown to close the gap. I don't see any 5 wave moves down from peak, just a 3 so far.

So until we get reconfirmation of some kind of firm 5 wave move lower, I must assume Minute [ii] is still in play.

UPDATE: As an aside, look for an inverted H&S pattern to potentially develop.

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