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Thursday, November 5, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 November

McClellan's is not quite back to the zero line as I had hoped. However since it bottomed so low on Minute [i], it may be close enough to the zero line to allow a nasty selloff.

Today's up volume was on low total volume. The up volume ratio of 6.43 was very consistent with a Minute [ii] bounce.

It boils down to several options tomorrow with the all-anticipated unemployment report:

1) Today was an ascending triangle and the markets will "thrust" up on open tomorrow, hit resistance and selloff in a nasty wave [iii] down. This would be like the September 2nd 2008 kickoff when the market opened high day after Labor Day and then sold like a banshee all day long

2) Today or shortly tomorrow was an ending diagonal triangle. This is almost like option 1) above. They both imply practically the same thing. Nuance. However this option supports a big unfilled (point of recognition) gap down and selloff.

3) We get a very bullish day and the markets shoot higher with the inverse Head and Shoulder target in the backs of everyone's minds. This would be about 1090 on the SPX. Follow through then on Monday to hit the target. I don't like this scenario because of a) resistance b) DOW would probably make a new high if the SPX went to 1090. c) my counts would be stretched to the limit and I'd have to make a bunch of new charts. d) up volume ratio would probably be too much to support a Minute [ii] count.

4) My counts are all wrong and back to the drawing boards this weekend.

Good Luck!
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