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Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Fractals and some thoughts

Back up to challenge the upper down channel line.

Challenging the upper channel line. A breakout of the channel is what we are looking for, for an early indication of a Minute [ii] back up.
Possible dollar chart if the market continues in a bullish manner through tomorrow.

...and the batman pattern in all-hours. LOL I am going to go walk the dog. See you all later.
I know its going to sound silly, but every time I see this batman pattern, its turned out to be a forewarning of some bullish moves to come in the next day.

Playing around with squiggles in case the 1029 turns out to be a near term, Minute [i] low.
Breaking the wedge.
A struggle for near term direction.. If bears can break 1029, they can trigger a bunch of stops and drive it lower. If bulls can win out, they too will trigger stops and a squeeze. Something is going to give soon.

Compressed prices.
E-minis did not make a new low. Still maintaining positive divergence. Keeping an eye on the various trendlines and such. Off work today, may post some squiggle charts here and there.

When the counting gets a little unclear, I always try and look at things from a price action perspective and/or a sentiment mindset. Using past fractal patterns can help out. Having watched and digested every tape squiggle for over a year, I have a decent memory.

The move off the recent top reminds me of the move off the early September 2008 top. This too was at a point in time when fear was ramping higher and every bull had that uneasy feeling that something big was about to happen to the downside (and it did of course). But the continuous slide downward on the Minute wave [i] in September 2008, the bulls dug in their heals at the bottom of the wave and the prices started to wedge. A final "throwover" of the wedge occurred and then the short squeeze and the growing fear momentary relieved itself in one giant final pang of buying that was the bulls way of saying "If I am going down, I won't go before ripping a few bears's guts out."

Anyways the wave and fractal patterns and psychology of the situation now reminds me of that time in late September 2008. Using just the McClellan's oscillator the markets are extremely oversold.

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