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Friday, November 6, 2009

A look at Wilshire Minute [ii]'s

I use the Wilshire5000 chart for wave interpretation. 5000 stocks makes such nice waves as compared to specific indexes.

I looked at the retraces of every Minute [ii] of P1. Specifically, the six I looked at were:

[ii] of 1 of (1) = .726 retrace
[ii] of 3 of (1) = .737
[ii] of 5 of (1) = .581
[ii] of 1 of (3) = .652
[ii] of 3 of (3) = .741
[ii] of 5 of (3) = .668

All had very deep retraces past .618. In fact, the numbers generated kind of proves that Fibonnanci retrace "targets" are much overrrated. The average retrace was .654. If you discard the quirky 5 of (1) of P1, the average of the remaining 5 is actually .70.

So what does this mean? It means that so far, the Wilshire has only retraced .564 which is still way below average. See chart where the higher average lies.

If worse case scenario the market retraces, say 74%, your looking at a Wilshire mark of 11185 or so which is still a ways from the recent peak of 11403.02. A 74% retrace would be about another 1.5% up move from the close on Friday.

However I only see perhaps a 1%-1.1% up move max, if that, Monday out of the gate. This would give us 11108 or thereabouts and that would be at resistance and where (y) = (w).

But you can see the Wilshire is guiding my thinking. Any retrace higher than 76% and something else is likely going on. If that were to happen, I am sure the DOW would be making a new high at that spot.

But so far its only been .564 at today's early peak and that is still short of the "average" so-to-speak.

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