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Tuesday, November 3, 2009

New Possible Long Term Gold Count

Back in August I suggested that Gold was heading to the $1080's.

On the weekly I suggested since there existed a substantial triangle pattern that perhaps it was part of a larger triangle pattern.

What always bothered me on the weekly is that I didn't like the degree wave labels I was using.

So today I updated both my weekly and daily to reflect that this could be a final rise in GOLD as the ending 5th Primary wave that started at last year's $681 low.

Gold is now overbought on the weekly and notice the long term double negative divergence on the RSI. That would be consistent of a 5th primary wave.

The internal wave structure of the 5th wave is a bit challenging, but its acceptable as you can see on my daily chart.

The last item I would like to mention is that GOLD appears to be taking on an expanding pattern on this last rise up since August. And that is a potentially bearish ending reversal pattern.

I would suspect that if a nasty market drop is coming and gold will sell very hard. As a side note, I think Gold is in danger of a huge drop.

The psychology certainly fits a Primary 5th wave top:
Gold ATM machines. Gold commercials dominate the radio and TV. Gold collectors at your local flea market. Gold sold on shelves in stores. Mail in your Gold for cash. Also how many advisers recommend a portion of your investments in gold? A lot.

If anyone can realize it, Gold has risen nearly $400 in about a year. And hence its overbought on the weekly.

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