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Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Parabolic Gold


Oil took about 8 years to finally reach a peak. Its roughly the same for Gold. The last commodity to have its runup before the great P3 crushes everything. Its angle of ascent is ramping higher. Now unencumbered with no overhead resistance, its got momo baby.

The Gold bugs have been waiting for this day. The miners too. Barracks Gold mine is still closing their hedges http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125718711525223397.html as are other producers. Maybe they will accelerate the unhedging just at its peak. Ahh, to have to make those decisions....

Is it not fitting that the decision to have no hedges at the very moment it peaks?

[As an aside I don't think its in a huge B wave count either - I think its finally on its wave 5 parabolic "runup" to peak.]

I cannot imagine Gold ending on a whimper. I imagine it will become part of the American conversation near its peak. And I don't think we are there just yet. And I can imagine the general public wanting it. Its already all over the radio and TV for the last few years. And the pitchmen were saying its gonna go up. And they were right.

Its hard to predict how high it will go but the inverse head and shoulders suggests $1280-$1300 is possible. But like any commodity that goes parabolic, once it reverses, the fall is hard. The precondition for gold skyrocketing was that no one believed it could including the hardcore gold bugs.

And on the flipside, the precondition required for gold to go back under $500 is that no one in their right mind would believe its possible.

But of course it is. A trade is a trade.


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