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Monday, November 9, 2009

Squiggles and More Zigzag Stuff


Another reason I suggested that the market may be experiencing a third and final "A" wave kickoff of a triple zigzag formation is that the move today is similar in nature to the kickoff's of the first two "A" waves (if thats what they are).

Looking at this market internal chart again

You can see the up volume ratio is practically exactly .618 of the previous "kickoff" up volume ratio of the zigzag 2 in blue (18/29 = .62) . And zigzag number 2's up volume peak ratio is .7 of the first zigzag. So you can see Fibonacci at work in this bear market rally. Each successive buying frenzy "kickoff" is 2/3rd's or so less than the previous.

If indeed this is a kickoff move and since the move so far measures a Fibonacci 62% strength of the previous kickoff move back in July, then applying the same logic to a points move would yield approximately 1121 on the SPX to the top of this "A" wave. (62% of 149 points of zigzag 2= 92. Take 92 and add it to the 1029 low = 1121 to the top of "A" of zigzag 3)

Looking at the squiggle chart in an honest manner, I would have to say that the squiggle agrees with that general view. Considering that today was likely a "third of a third" day, if this thing has any more steam left in it, which it should, then it should work its way upwards in a the last wave plays of (iv) (v), [iii] [iv] [v] which as you can see, I haven't got a place for them yet because they likely haven't occurred that I can see (assuming I have the first waves placed correctly).

At 1120, of course it would look like another perfect top to the markets and we would all call it yet again....but you would have to wait for a B wave and then a final C wave to whatever monstrous peak we can get this sucker up to.

And it will all take time. Time enough for them to collect their year end bonuses without having any major crashes perhaps. And after finishing their duty of buying the market without fail and cashing in record bonuses, I don't see any reason why the bastards would bother to keep a hold of stocks in a market with a P/E ratio of about 150 by then when it is clear that the economy just ain't gonna turn and unemployment creeps toward 11% or higher...

This is of course hinging on the fact that this is a third zigzag kickoff and not something else.

How would we know its something else? Well for starters, if tomorrow reverses and muddies up that area on the chart I call "third of a third" that goes straight up at the beginning of today, then that is signalling reversal.

In short, today's open gap up shouldn't be filled at all until P3 is showing its face. Even if the market puts in an A wave top at 1121, a B wave pullback should leave that gap alone.

So today was expected to be an up day for me. However it was too much, too bullish and internals were too bullish too ignore. And they reconquered 1090 and closed it above. So giving an honest go of things just based on internals, my thinking here about a third zigzag is definitely on the plate and has moved to the forefront of my thinking.

It would take a truly monster reversal to keep the SPX from making new highs. I never like to say never, but it ain't looking good.

But if any wave can make it happen its P3...And if any wave that can keep going like the energizer bunny its P2.

Too bad were stuck in the middle.
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