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Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Dow Jones Industrial Squiggles (Added Transports)

UPDATE: (10:49pm)  Added transports too.

I supposed that the Transports was in some kind of expanding ending diagonal move last week, but now it too has apparently morphed into a triangle with a complex (b) wave (of which triangles should exhibit at least one when its a large triangle such as this).

The Dow squiggles are presenting a very clear potential count that cannot be ignored. Due to the DOW not clearly breaking above its December trading range as other indexes, using the B wave low is probably best.

I presented a count today that showed a possible top and a triangle tracing out intraday.

After I posted it, it broke upwards which is when I realized I maybe had the triangle upside down.  Probably guilty of bias. The only logical way a triangle (and it certainly counts well as a triangle) can really be in that position after a complex sideways move is a double three with a triangle in the final position.   Kenny also nailed this potential pattern in his update

I don't entirely trust the thing but it stacks up well in a completely revamped DJIA squiggle count which is a very nice count.  EWI showed a DJIA squiggle count but they show the peak as being in and their count leaves out labeling on a few squiggles (which I don't like to do).  Sometimes shoehorning a count and ignoring a bump or 2 is a red flag that we are all guilty of from time to time.

But I'll take the flipside and suppose it may not be quite over yet for the DJIA. And with all the indexes trading in a tight range last few days, I don't see why the DOW wouldn't squeak a new high along with most other things.

I really, really like my new count and its exciting when even the sub-subwaves (not labeled) show little 5 wave impulse moves which I would have labeled but Stockcharts only allows so many characters.

At any rate, what is so nice is that there are clear markers that would indicate failure of this pattern. And all it need to do is squeak a new high.

I think we are real close. Maybe tomorrow has a squeaky new peak and Monday really is a MASH-THE-SELL-BUTTON kind of day...but perhaps after a squeak opening.

Keep an eye on this chart, I have it on my stockcharts public list.

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