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Monday, December 14, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 December

Again, maybe C wave topped at 1119, but we need to imagine a count for a higher target area if it requires.
This squiggle chart below gets more imaginative with the wave counts in a bit of a bullish manner. There are lots of ways to count it and perhaps I am too generous. But basically 1100 pivot has to hold for the bullish count.
Well, I think we can almost rule out the leading diagonal down as I supposed may be happening last week even if no index has yet to make a new intraday high. They are awfully close. The gap up today wasn't challenged yet by the bears. Its just a sorry state of affairs. Even JUNK made easily new highs today. And the real estate chart IYR looks like its ready to make a move to a new high also.

As per my weekend post on the Wilshire and a reevaluation of the near term wave count, there doesn't appear to be "enough" of a C wave to be a satisfying wave structure.

Since lately I have shown what the count may look like if the 1119 was the "high" and have shown a possible leading diagonal down (which has yet to be officially eliminated), I decided to approach tonight from a different perspective of perhaps this is just the "front end" of a final C wave and that we have yet to have the meat of a wave 3 up move play out yet. The moves so far off the 1085 low could be a repeat of the front half of the "A" wave but on a bit of a smaller scale. Additionally the RSI on the 60 and daily have broken upwards a bit.

So I can imagine the counts, and do the FIB math to higher targets, but I am not sure how this will all shake out. But the dollar may be ready for a wave 2 retrace down and various commodities (gold, etc) may be ready for a relief rally upwards. So combined, it may indicate a further market up moves.

Ideally it will push up in the meat of a wave [iii] of C move soon and make a new high above 1119.

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