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Monday, December 21, 2009

Global Dow....Topped?

The Global Dow makes fine Elliott Waves.  It is the one major index that had lower lows recently and today's bounce looked weak and has a "three" abc look about it.   The 60 Minute charts sports 5 wave structures down from its recent peak. There is a 50/200 cross going on and that is bearish.

The weekly has a double negative divergence and hit the 50% fib retrace from the 2007 high. One thing that is rally scary is how high the GDOW is when you look at the 2002-2003 low area.  We have a long way to go! Its a lot of leveraging that needs de-leveraging. Also the MACD has crossed. Bearish.

The next moves would be a very bearish wave iii or a "third of a third".   Perhaps that coincides with the DJIA breaking the rising trendline from the March low.

I'd say there is an excellent chance that the GDOW has topped.  But we need more waves down to form an overall 5 wave structure to confirm.  But there is a possibility that a very bearish down move is right around the corner.

Now that I said that, I'm sure it'll have a record day up tomorrow LOL!

If the GDOW has topped, the rest of the indexes are not too far behind.
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