Bears cannot believe how IYR seems to keep trudging along. But when you step back and look at its long term chart, like financials, you realize it hasn't even retraced 42% from its early 2007 peak.
It seems to want to trace a triple zigzag. My guess is that it will target its breakdown gap/candle as shown on the weekly chart. That blue box is the (minimum) target area.
As with any projection such as a complicated zigzag count such as this, you always have to respect the potential for the final move higher yet realize that your count might be wrong.
But the challenging of the breakdown area "point of recognition" is a theme of mine for wave 's, if this is indeed a wave . Thats the problem with the count. If its instead a [B] wave, then a 42% retrace is just about right.