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Monday, January 11, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 January (Update 9:38pm)

[Update 9:48 PM: These 2 comparisons are interesting at this stage. Doesn't the rally in 1930 look like a triple zigzag too? See what happened when that rising trendline broke?]

[Update 9:38PM: As I showed over the weekend, the DJIA is coming upon formidable resistance.]

[Update 9:20 PM: Simple chart of the dollar.  No signs of a wave 2 bottom just yet but we have some good spots for support. My bet is the 50 MA will be a line in the sand for dollar bulls. Of course UUP shows something slightly differing.]

[Update 6:50pm: Fibonacci at work.  I believe Wednesday or Thursday is the official .618/.382 ratio for P1/P2 in time and trading. And this chart below kind of represents why I favor a triple zigzag formation above all else.  It just fits well with a declining pattern of strength.  Perhaps if this was a 5 wave move up, it should show a somewhat differing pattern, as in a pattern of expansion forward in time not contraction. This to me has a signature of a limited counter-trend rally (and yes a big one) against the main cycle trend (down).  Hey I could be wrong, but the market hasn't yet told me that just yet. It may still and if it does, I'll be the first to point it out.]

[Update 6:20 PM EST: You gotta love that candle on the FTSE.]

[Update 6PM EST: Added this Nasdaq again with some notes on it]

This is such a nice looking chart that counts well all-around. The only problem is it presumes a top or nearly so which, again, has been a problem lately.  The waves look "tired" as they advance upwards.

VIX popped way low today and finished outside the daily BB. This is usually a setup for a nice bear day once it closes back inside.  Who thought sub 17 VIX only 10 months ago raise your hand? No one? Its here.

Triangle target and apex target about met

I'll have some more charts later.
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