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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 January [Update 8:45 PM EST]

[Update 8:45 PM: Turning to the RUT because out of all the indexes, the RUT has some very good squiggles going for it.  First the bigger chart shows that the bullish count would have today's low as a likely wave [iv] low and that [iv] traced a "double three" flat combination.   The bearish count is what I showed yesterday in that Minute [v] topped in merely one day out of a contracting triangle for a nominal new high.

[Update 8:45 PM: Of course the squiggle count in the RUT shows it made a nice 5 waves down from yesterday's peak, probably the best of the bunch on all the indexes.  Is it a wave (i) down or a final corrective wave in Minute [iv]?  We can only answer that by how the retrace responds. So far the retrace is best characterized as a 3 wave "a-b-c" structure that has retraced a Fiboannaci 50% which is a typical wave (ii) retrace.  But it is nicely impulsive. So we need more evidence tomorrow.]

[Update 4:25 PM: Here is bit of technical damage the market did today. The DJIA cracked under its rising trend line. The rally this afternoon could just be a wave (ii) retrace "backtest" of that line. Ater the backtest, the market may selloff hard in a wave (iii) down. If everybody sees this possibility, then a burst above the trading range to new highs in a bear crushing move would of course be the contrarian play perhaps. Or will the bulls finally blink? Should be fun either way...]

Well the bears again could not close the deal, at least not today.  All indexes pretty much held their upper major supports.  The tug of war continues in the upper trading ranges but the bulls held their ground...for now

The Wilshire makes a perfectly fine expanding triangle (I should have shown this possibility yesterday).  There really cannot be any more sideways movement for the indexes for as you can see, if the down move today was a wave (e) of Minute [iv], then it has pretty much run out of waves.    A solid break of support at (e) would indicate a third wave down was occurring and that the triangle was false.

So the good news of course for bears is that this could just be a wave (ii) of [ii] back upwards and then the real carnage of a wave (iii) down comes tomorrow and breaks the (e) spot.  That is a very real possibility.  There were lots of little technical and wave disturbances today that supports the bear view that an even bigger selloff is coming.

However the waves downward did not make the best 5 wave structures and there exists another huge gap on the SPX above. And until it proves its not a triangle, well, what can one do?

I'll have more charts later.
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