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Thursday, January 28, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 January [Update 6:50PM EST]

[Update 6:50PM: Here is a complete count pretty much of the bear market cycle wave c so far.  You can see we are looking for Minute [i] down.  We have yet to experience a Minute [ii], because wave 2's of any degree are supposed to plant a little doubt in the bears (just like P2!), particularly right off the top of a cycle high or primary high.  Bullishness is still very elevated overall which is why this market is falling in general.  Further down the road, in the heart of wave 3's at all degrees, panic and fear sets in.  I don't sense panic so my judgement is that this is neither a Minute [iii] just yet either]

[Update 6:25 PM: Banks looks like an impulse so far.]

[Update 4:55 PM: The RUT is making nice patterns.  There appears to be a bona fide expanding triangle that follows the rules. So I have it labeled as such. And perhaps one more wave down to go. However there is a legitimate 5 wave move up from its low, and since this is a big triangle, perhaps its in the Minuette (iv) position and not the iv.

The reason I suppose it might have more down waves is the blue box area or "third of a third" seems too low in the structure if today was the bottom. So I placed the 50% retrace FIB in the middle of the blue box and you can see the low end hasn't yet been met.]

[Update 4:30PM: Here is one potential count on the NASDAQ. It may need one more low.  I don't know if the triangle is correct, I labeled it as such because it thrusted down like one. There are other valid ways.

We still haven't had any big wave [ii] because there hasn't been any doubt among the bears. Its coming, the question is at what level will it launch from? If this is Minute [i] wave down, it has indeed chopped off some 7% of the market. Thats bearish as the Minute [i] off the top in Oct 2007 only took off about 5.5% I think. So this is more powerful as was theorized with this being P3.

However both the NASDAQ and Wilshire diverge in that their peaks occurred many days before the SPX and DJIA. I don't know yet how those top sideways waves fit into the overall picture as i am sure they do somehow. But for now I will wait until the structure reveals itself. Its one reason I have been ignoring the Wilshire and NASDAQ for a bit.

Well my first instinct last Friday I guess turned out to be correct.  I scrapped the extended wave (v) because the structure keeps unfolding and revealing its structure. I do not think this is a Minute [iii], rather just the end 4's and 5's of Minute [i] which keeps unfolding.  Kenny also shows the same structure.

It may actually have one more low to go.Notice the ALT: iv.  Perhaps only the NASDAQ does. I'll show that in a bit.

I made an error by ignoring the NASDAQ's structure for the past few days.  It needed more down waves which was probably an indication that the rest of the market would too.

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