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Monday, January 4, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 January (Update 8pm)

Update 8pm: Here is a more detailed breakdown of that Nasdaq 30 minute chart. It has a nice symetry going for it. Also note the trading times for A, B and C.  Also I adjusted the triangle breakout target to the less aggressive level.  Since [b] and [d] are not quite level, I used the [b] for the top line. Add width of triangle [a] to [b] = 100 points, so add 100 to the top of [b]  2213 +100 = 2314 breakout target.

So it can be said that the triangle width added to [e] pointed the way to the 2295 top and subsequent pullback.

Then the triangle width added to the top line of the triangle should point the way to the upper target.

Here is the upper triangle breakout target. About 2330. less than 20 points higher than today.

This chart tells a big story.  It doesn't want to test a break of the trendline. Sooner or later it will break and it will break in a manner that we won't anticipate.  Like for instance if today reversed to the tune of a 250-300 point loss.  Not saying thats whats going to happen.  Negative divergence on the hourly RSI and MACD.

Transports have some catching up to do.  Diverging.

Wilshire's triangle target. I still think this is a wave [v] behavior because of where the RSI on this hourly topped out. Its starting to diverge which is what we can expect.

VIX ending diagonal count if the low is not yet in.  It should make a clear abc pattern to 5. VIX 60, daily and weekly showing positive divergence and underlying strength even if it works its way to a new low, I think the divergence remains on all.

For such a bullish day, real estate was negative, and this on the day the Dubai tower opened. I suppose that could just be 1 day contrarian play or a reminder of things to come.  (Yes SRS was green).  Hardly inspiring. Transports lagging on bullish oil.  As far as oil, see my weekend chart, I show it needing to make a new high above $82. Not quite there just yet but almost.

The Wilshire outlines the best counts. Nothing has really changed. Because of where the RSI topped out on the hourly (chart above), I still think this a Minute [v] to a peak.

I'm still sticking forks in it and its almost 160 degrees, the perfect temperature for piggy pork.
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