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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 January (Update 6:15pm)

Update 6:15pm: Here is the chart I posted last night on the NASDAQ painting a 2314 target for early today.


And the result: 2313.73 on the precise hour. Makes me wonder if this is telling me something....

The rally is probably at a stage very soon on having to "keep on keepin on".  The DOW cannot dilly-dally much longer sideways in a weakened state or it will be testing its rising bear trend line. I still consider this is a Minute [v], if you will, to peak.  A final surge in prices will allow a lot of indexes to hit targets. Like oil above $82 and the dollar in a wave 2 low retrace. Gold retrace peak, etc.

We are going to have to see if the market can muster a big up day and sustain it. I don't think it can.  In my opinion, any bullish final spasm higher will be "the end".  I am looking for a big reversal.

Using the Wilshire, we have a pretty darn decent ascending triangle.  The upper target is not too far away.    I found that there is a nice confluence of Fibonacci targets from the 11833 - 11879 zone.   3 targets they are on the chart and they are the spots one could look for a potential reversal.  Less than 1% or so above today.

If the market decides it wants to go to very higher targets of 1180+, then we will be entering the "third of a third" very soon indeed and will sustain a big up day, not just a bullish open.   That is the dilemna for a lot of wavers right now.   I don't worry about it, I got my eyes peeled on the triangle target.

Trying to keep it simple.



There is one other chart I am keeping an eye on and thats the VIX.   Its making a nice wedge ED, so upon a new low in the VIX look for a big reversal. Positive divergence on the hourly for months along with daily and weekly is also a powerful signal.  As long as these underlying bullish conditions exist, along with a nice ED pattern, I have no reason to suppose they are lying just yet.

And who can doubt that bullishness is creeping ever higher yet still? Look at the 10 day MA of the CPC.  Its at a bull market zone.   Since I am charting a P2 wave that has limited price and time, I suppose this is very bearish for the markets.  Too many bears? C'mon this chart doesn't necessarily agree with that statement.

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