Custom Search

Friday, February 12, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 February [Update Monday 6:37PM EST]

[Update Monday 6:37PM:  Interesting RUT chart.]
[Update 6:52 PM: Yes they RUT ran up today but looking at the subwaves it too looks like a potential ending diagonal pattern complete with overthrow. Everything overlaps. It has a very classic ED look.]
[Update 6:18 PM:  I look for patterns on the VIX which has been useful. Particularly useful is a falling wedge pattern which is fairly reliable. Its interesting that the VIX fell to its lowest point at the end of Friday after a week of the markets struggling. Yet the SPX and DJIA were well off the previous day's highs and had yet to even close their gaps completely.  Can someone see the future 3 days from now? Or did the bulls finally drop their guard and the market finally work off a good deal of bearishness that has been rampant?]

[Update 5:49PM: With Monday being a main market off day and futures-only trading, Tuesday's open may be interesting no matter which way it goes. The other day I tried to short a slice of UPRO and there were no shares available.  I just shorted a slice in A/H's and had no problem getting shares.  I actually tried to short a bunch of triple inverse ETF's a day or so ago (when the SPX first rallied to 1079) and I got no shares available on any of the popular ETF's.]

[Update 5:40PM: Well the whole BIDU "price collapse thing" in an ED pattern of course somewhat depend(s) on the general market direction which I figured would be heading down by now.  Still, on the whole, this weekly charts holds promise if your a bear on BIDU.]
Call it the "curse of the Elliott Wave International interim update". Every time they issue an  interim "alert" the market purposely mocks them for at least a day or so.   In reality they are not yet wrong in that they called the top of 1080 the top of (ii) of [iii] same as I had in my update. The opening started out promising to the downside with very bearish market internals yet it caught a bid, or in reality the selling abated.

And why wouldn't it? Bulls worked hard slopping it up all week and now they get a fresh stab at things next week after forming bullish engulfing weekly candles on many indexes.

In the end I think EWI was a day early in spirit.  The NASDAQ went green but look at its chart pattern below. Its a rising wedge pattern with overlapping waves. Yes the RUT stretched its legs a bit, but it had a stunted retrace previously.

The primary count hasn't changed for the DJIA and SPX. Neither closed their gaps today.  I am still not sure how to label the NASDAQ from its very peak but I am sure we will have something next week.
blog comments powered by Disqus