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Friday, February 19, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 February [Update 8:06PM]

[Update 8:06PM Real Estate topped prior to the DJIA and SPX.  Just as financials did.]
[Update 5:40 PM: The hourly VIX chart looks ugly.  But again, a break over the downtrend RSI line might be a "buy" signal.

[Update 5:20PM:  Technically you can see on the DJIA hourly chart that the RSI is diverging. The MACD is looking a bit sickly.   Also note how the last 2 rallies  since the top followed a trendline on the RSI.  A break of the RSI was a sell signal and a break of this one will surely be the same.  Question is, how much will it sell? That is the key to the next market moves.

McClellan's moved very little today and actually dropped less than a point.]

Well, all things considered the Wilshire retraced a little over 68% which  is quite normal for a Minute [ii] actually I think.  The danger for anyone holding longs is that the count is correct and a wave 3 down is about to commence.   I have no way of knowing if bearishness has been eradicated enough for a 3 wave.

One thing for sure is that the market closed over its 50DMA today (which was the obvious goal at about 11:00 AM) . Its just too convenient if you ask me.  It should add to the bullishness feeling over the weekend.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) is leading the way.  It is sitting under the upper support and it should be significant resistance.  

The SPX chart below is interesting with the forkology.  Also notice the daily tick is way high. The market is showing technical signs of needing to consolidate for any further pushes higher. Question is, how will it be able to handle a tight consolidation above 1100?  That is a tall order considering the squiggle counts could very well be done for this leg up.   
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