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Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 February [Update 6:52 PM EST]

[Update 6:52 PM: Looking over the squiggles and I think the ascending triangle may be a red herring. For one, it has an extra wave in it which is kind of odd.   Putting a blue box in the open area from today's opening, it may mark somewhere near the middle of a 5 wave structure and the middle of a wave iii.   

Using Fibonacci expansion ratios works nicely for the structure.  This whole premise is based on hitting the 50DMA tomorrow. Since these bull runs usually last 3 days, its possible we get another 10 SPX points tomorrow to the next resistance area.

The question is, if this is a 5 wave structure, is it a (c) wave in an expanded wave [ii] flat? Or just an (a) wave  of a 5-3-5 zigzag?   They both work and we won't know until it retraces back down and what form the retrace takes.  In my estimation, any retrace into the blue box area is very weak for the bulls and could indicate its all over.  If they lose this ground again, I seriously wonder if they gain it back.


[Update 5:17 PM: The below chart is a mapping of P1 with McClellan's. Note that the Minute [iii]'s tend to start when the oscillator is at or above the zero line. Makes sense from an overbought/oversold standpoint. Wave 3's are supposed to take you down to the extreme oversold levels. We'll see how this works out.]
[Update 5:10PM: Here is McClellan's update. I think we need to get to the zero line for a Minute [iii] to launch from. Getting closer, but not quite yet!]

Minute [ii] bounce continues is the primary count.  The squiggles extended further than I anticipated which leads me to believe it could be an initial 5 waves up for an (a) wave. If it still is an a-b-c then we are likely looking at a double Zigzag for Minute [ii]. Or if it is 5 waves, the 50DMA is at 1113.2, that is a nice spot for an (a) wave.  Or it could be the entire Minute [ii]. However, the NASDAQ is lagging, so after 2 days of rally, we may see some rotation into tech and the financials will back off a bit, etc.

If the drop took a Fibonacci 8 days, then a Fibonnaci 5 days would be a perfect time ratio. That takes us to a Minute [ii] high late Friday trading.

Here is the lagging NASDAQ.
The GDOW actually shows an ending diagonal wedge.
The RUT has a ways to go to its blue box target area.
The SPX is of course no longer anywhere near oversold. Note the resistance layers. It closed above the 1001 spot.  Next is 1113-1115 which is where the 50DMA resides.  And then above that around 1130.  Will the market make it to 1130?  Its possible and certainly within the normal realm of a wave [ii].
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