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Friday, February 26, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 February [Update 7:20PM EST]

[Update 7:20 PM: The Wilshire count below.]
The squiggle count looks bearish any way you slice it. Pushing prices all day to the end in a zigzags.
Count is basically the same. Lowest volume of the year and end-of month window dressing. Monday ramp job probably has people eying a big breakout over resistance.I think the tables are going to turn and if Monday pops higher, I think there is an excellent chance it sells very hard in a wave 3 move shortly after any pop-up. Technically, it looks ripe.
Here is the VIX daily. Notice the perfect downchannel on the Ultimate Oscillator that has faithfully tracked the VIX retreat from the peak in 2008.  It hit deep in oversold territory. If this is still P2, then this is the first time prices have diverged.  So that leads me to believe its not P2, and that indeed fear is ready to ramp much higher.
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