Custom Search

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update Sun 2 PM EST]

[Update Sun 2:PM: Global DOW chart.  The extended 5th wave high loos right out of EWP. I am sure there are some price violations but I think the wave structure captures the spirit of an extended 5th.
Junk's weekly candle could be hazardous. It has also formed another trend line that is a textbook wave 2 short trendline.]
[Update Sun 11:20AM:  Did some more work on BIDU and potential price targets based on 3 methods.  The good thing is that the price target range from all 3 is in the same ballpark from $520.06 to $533.47. There is an upper target that resides at $537.59.   If its an ED, perhaps Friday was the high as I have a max $523 price on that pattern. The ED pattern doesn't look good at this stage so I don't show it on the chart.  It rather fits either an ascending triangle or contracting triangle for Intermediate (4).

The ascending pattern had a big breakout then a dive back deep into the triangle which is kinda goofy.  So the contracting pattern may actually be the ticket here. And that gives us the lowest possible price target of $520.06 which you could say its there already. We'll see Monday. Key pivot support is $495.

Also notice if its a contracting triangle as shown with the black converging lines, the apex spot may mark a major turning point which is roughly last Thursday or Friday at the latest.

Obviously market direction plays a big role here. If the market dive bombs in a nasty Minor 3, then BIDU should follow.]
The transports are very frisky and has retraced 76.7% back to peak.  The 78.6% Fib resides a scant 10 points more at 4153.5.  Some potential bearish developments on the hourly though including negative divergence and a potential shooting star for a candle pattern.  There is also non-confirmation with the Industrials. But you can see that the Transports really shouldn't be tracing much higher. However, if they do make a new P2 high sometime this week or next and the Industrials do not, that would be significant non-confirmation in DOW theory and be bearish.

Not sure of the count but I do count 11 waves back up. 11 waves is a corrective count. It also could be a contracting triangle smack in the middle of the formation which could be an X wave of a double zigzag.
The squiggles backs up the shooting star potential. I have them in an Ending diagonal move. A price collapse back to iv would be the next guess for this chart.   You can see how the move from low to high counts very well as the final five waves.   I know a lot of people say the squiggles are useless, however the nature of the "pushing" in zigzag moves that overlap on the final hours on low up volume on the final day of the month for potential window dressing is very much reflected in the squiggles.
blog comments powered by Disqus