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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

E-minis [Update 2:12PM]

[Update 2:12PM: NDX 100. Translating this pattern to the qqqq's is that the wave started at $46.40 . So if its an ED, prices should collapse and $46 puts would be looking good tomorrow. These are the kinds of patterns you look for as they have the best potential of paying off quickly. And this market looks tired.]

[Update 1:47 PM: As a bear, you got to respect the big boy on the block, XOM.  It appears a giant triangle is forming and the final (E) leg is taking shape. Thats a big gap for such a widely held stock.  Its been quiet lately. With Oil back above $81, thats the ticket for a rally to close that gap perhaps]
[Update 1:15PM: The dismantling of the bank leveraged system will happen. Its got wide support. Its inevitable as there are a lot of angry folks including the insiders in Congress no doubt. This is just why the market is on limited time. P3 is still very real.]

[Update 12:55PM: This Wilshire chart makes me think there is one more high coming. Maybe I have the [1] in the wrong spot, but I don't see any other good place to put it. Also if you count the waves down inside red [2] and [4] they count as seven waves which is corrective so far.]

[Update 12:20PM: E-minis actually makes a nice wedge, all hours. Also that 1148 high ties the January high.]

[Update 12:08PM: All the indexes are showing signs of overlap which could be an ED showing exhaustion of the move. Lunchtime, prices are wandering. This is one count I'm keeping an eye on. It suggests that the end of day they will try and challenge 1150 again on close. But tomorrow would be a big down day if its an ED.

Prices cannot move down too far or this formation doesn't work]

[Update 8:50 PM: Looking at the moves over the last few months, one thing sticks out on the chart is the move from November to January peak looks like an ABC three.  Trying to take into account this wave marker is challenging at this stage. We have several options I think. The first two I have shown:

1. The SPX does not make a new high and the January top was indeed the end of a triple ZZ formation.
2.  Somehow fits into a large expanding ending diagonal formation (which consists of ABC legs)

3. Or this 3rd option I present below in that a huge Intermediate (X) wave triangle has played out over the last few months and we are working on the last ABC to P2 peak.  This is the most bullish option and would carry the SPX probably toward 1180-1200. This would allow the conditions and other targets I mentioned to be hit in this post

I think it would help get mom and pops to get back in the market yet again as the market would be screaming "new bull!" Also the unemployment rate is probably going to go positive in a big way soon Ending the rally on such a high note of positive news would be appropriate.

In any event we definitely have key markers that cannot be broke to the downside in order for this count to be correct. I suppose we are near to topping out for the "A" leg.  The "B" leg would probably carry down no lower than around 1116-1125 and only briefly.   So like I said, that 1116 gap and the 1125 gap are key spots to the entire market at the moment.
Here is how the internal legs of the triangle would be labeled.  One thing for sure is that the proposed  E wave certainly had the attendant psychology that everyone though the market was going to drop hard on the rate hike and unemployment numbers.  Instead of dropping the market reversed in a thrust move to the upside on pretty darn good internals last Friday.

Today is the 10th day of the rally from the pivot low.  The blue top channel line would be a target if we head up some more today. It resides around 1152 on these minis.
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