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Thursday, March 11, 2010

E-minis [Update 2:30PM]

[Update 2:30PM: Here is the SPX showing its extended wave [i]. The RSI peak usually occurs in a subwave of wave 3 and this appears to be the case here.  So next target we are looking for a Fib relationship between [i] and net of [iii] + [v]. Extended wave [i]s are relatively rare, but considering the circumstances of the overall wave structure, its plausible here due to resistances, etc. 

So the target would be 1156 for first target.  The great thing about proposed triangle is they have definite limits and key markers. If 1038.99 (where I have wave (c) of the triangle) is cracked to the downside, this pattern is blown up. Thats the theoretical best place to short if this pattern fails I suppose. They could reform of course in some cases.]
[Update 1:54PM: Reconfiguring the last 11 days or so. It could be a triangle forming.  11926.18 is a key pivot/support for this pattern.

Also EWP mentions as a guideline, if wave 1 is the extended wave, which is how I have it labeled here, it often in proportion to the net travel of waves 3 through 5.  So in this case, wave [i] = wave [iii] thru [v] at 12120.  On the SPX, 1156 would be where the net of [iii] thru [v] = [i].]

[Update 11:12 AM: Update price target on BIDU. $564 +- $3 based on the ascending triangle.]
[Update 11:00AM: I think the MM's want to see how many stops are exactly sitting behind 1150. This would result in massive overthrow if they can break em.  And if this is an expanding ED the price should reverse after the spike and move back toward the 1130's. Anyways I eagerly await.

It would be appropriate that this is an expanding ED, as the price spike is not limited per se.]

[Update 10:41 AM: The whole thing is a bit sketchy but it still seems to be missing a wave up. Its weird but this squiggle chart resembles the entire move up from 2009 lows.  Complete with expanding top.]

[Update 7:30 AM: Google]

I know its tough slog at the moment for wave charts, but really, stepping back and looking at the larger picture shows that the trend is waning. Yes the Wilshire has yet to start P3 down and we get a fresh count on things.

Market Harmonics has some nice free charts on their website.  . They have an explanation page for all their indicators.

For instance this page contains the Wilshire Rate of Change for short term, intermediate and long term

From the long term indicator, it is now making a record high from the zero line. This indicates that the uptrend is quite mature since the March 2009 bottom.

The Intermediate shows a waning trend since last year. As the price continues up, this indicator is wiggling down. In fact during the selloff in January to February 2010, this indicator went below zero line (crossovers of the zero line in intermediate indicators can help indicate a trend change)
You can see this ROC on the Wilshire chart below.

The Wilshire has come up to a resistance mark shown with the green arrow. This coincides with 2005 resistance shown with red arrows.

The pink arrow is a key support level in my estimation. As long as the market can stay above this, it might keep chugging sideways/upwards for a few weeks in a limited manner.   A drop beneath it would probably indicate exhaustion of the larger trend and all these ROC's on the short and intermediate scale would start crossing under the zero line again.  And Skynet will pick up on it and perhaps start a new trend - down.

The Wilshire has yet to retrace to the 61.8 Fib. Will it make it? I dunno thats another 400 points or so. You can see that there lies bigger resistance painted in the blue arrows is at 12200-12219 or so. This is a multi-year resistance mark  (2006 support double lows) that would be tough to chew through considering how far the market has come.
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