Custom Search

Friday, March 12, 2010

E-minis [Update 3:39PM]

[Update 3:36PM: Here is the gist of the extended wave [v].  The waves would probably look not-so-hot as impulses and be quite craggly at the end and "forced", much as the sub-700 waves were. Again, we have clear markers for this count specifically the triangle apex where I have the "e" marked. Sentiment would continue to extremes in this manner.
Again, here is the chart (which is actually the first chart posted on this blog over a year ago)[v]+of+3+of+(5).png   Had I realized the Intermediate (4) of P1 was a triangle and applied a blue 5 at the low of the chart, we had a winner count to the very bottom just about. In my first post I was pondering if we had a missing last squiggle wave but that never came. Well actually it did come and teh NASDAQ made a low the next day and the SPX likely truncated. The whole thing was screaming bullish.]

[Update 3:20PM: During the March 2009 bottom, I had labeled the move down from the triangle as an extended wave 5 of (5) in a relatively tight channel.  I remember the low well.   P2 may in fact be in some kind of extended wave [v] of C of P2.  Its just one thing I'm keeping an eye on. Here is basically how that would break down on where we would be. The "e" spot of the triangle cannot be breached or this count is incorrect. So the "dip buy" would be above the e spot and stop set below the e spot. So the SPX can go down to 1142.5  at the lowest or so if this is the case.  And then of course Monday would be a wave iii up over 1153. Just playin with the squiggles here as its certainly a slow day again.]

Very tight channel on the NASDAQ. It did not have as much overnight pop as the SPX.  The stochs/MACD are showing negative divergence so we'll see how that plays out.

The question is of course, does this rally need to run extreme bullishness back above January highs before it peaks?  In a few ways that has occurred on a some indicators. But for the most part, we have not yet reached January's peak of extreme bullishness. It will take probably a bit more positive price action to get there.  It doesn't even have to be much. 1150 is a "marker" in the sand much like 950 was for some.  Once 1150+ price action is established, the remaining skeptics will likely succumb.

The economy seems to be "improving" and perhaps this P2 rally will not end until we have a positive jobs report of some standing.  The next one may produce that with the hiring of the census workers. Yet the economy is not improving as they close banks every weekend. Seems a funny way to continue a new bull and the red zone banks have doubled in the past year. 

So again, its a matter of sentiment and good news likely to end this sucker. The NASDAQ's daily sentiment is positive but not at extreme

The debt has not yet been flushed out by any means. Even consumers have only put a tiny dent in the total debt.  We all know the government's story.

One last item, any gap up not closed today would be very curious. If any gap up is smartly closed, then this market means to run a bit higher I suppose.  Any gap up and then lower close today is a perhaps a warning sign for bulls.

So there is meaning to be taken from each day. Will I make money today? I don't have to trade or invest. But certainly prices are looking attractive again.  But by any measure, most bears have been run out of town and the last few remaining might today.

And when Skynet decides to turn don't be left holding the bag.

And I will start banning the idiots again today en masse. I want the board to be productive, not endless Yahoo-crap.  Likely we are entering the "sub-700" phase of the bull rally sentiment-wise.

Let me say one last thing: The market couldn't get you to "believe" in the "new bull" via improving economic numbers.  I don't think there is one person on this board, bull or bear, who doesn't agree we are in the eye of a shitstorm economically.  I don't think there is one bull who believes the government's bullshit. And you would all admit running a $220B deficit every month is insane. So you are in some way already aware of the Ponzi.  

We think we're smart enough to get out before everyone else before it is recognized on a mass scale. Thats what everyone thinks. Good luck today.

blog comments powered by Disqus