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Thursday, March 18, 2010

E-minis

There is some confusion of what I was trying to say about Technical Analysis in an update last night. I haven't pushed aside TA by any means! On the contrary, TA and EW go hand in hand. All I am trying to say is that TA that points toward a cycle wave rally (i.e.-multiple years) at this stage is not likely due to wave structure pointing to this being merely a primary-sized rally.  If the TA rolls over nice and neat for us thats fine!  But it doesn't have to.  For instance, a major peak (P2) may in fact be marked by a high in daily RSI instead of a multi-week or even multi- month divergence.  Might, might not. We don't know yet. Just don't assume a cycle-sized rollover is what I am saying. Thats all.

And yes the 13/34 EMA is a nice indicator. But they don't work instantly so there is always dead zones. And of course P3 will have the 13/34 in a constant negative state. Doesn't mean that after a 200 point drop your going to continue to believe in it.

New low overnight. Haven't seen that in a while. Good luck!
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