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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 March [Update 5:45 PM]

[Update 5:45PM: In a final act of defiance, this is the count that is still preferred over all others.]

[Update 4:38PM: QQQQ's filled an old gap from summer 2008.  Retraced 75%.  The 2008 August top is resistance. Showing some weakness in the weekly.]

The market looks a bit tired as there are a lot of overlapping actionary waves upward.  Its been 10 full trading days since the 1086 pivot and these runs have a knack of lasting 10 days. Could be an Ending Diagonal move. That would imply yet another gap up and the SPX would temporary clear 1150 for a new high. Then it should get slapped down and finish the day very much in the red.

So the call is that any gap up tomorrow gets closed in short order.  Of course today could have been a short term top but there is no down wave evidence just yet of that so I assume the market will gap up and run yet again.  Notice the MM's didn't gap it up today yet it ran hard out the gates?  A gap up today would have been challenged.
Here is a potential primary count on the SPX in that we are near the "A" wave peak.  So a fall back toward the 38% Fin wherever that resides once the A wave is over.  So approximately 1116-1125 would be the call for a "B" wave and then one last blast higher.  A break of 1116 is very bearish in my opinion.
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