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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 March [Update 9:25PM]

GDOW's chart looks ripe with possible ED. This is worldwide mood right here folks. And it ain't yet challenging its previous peak.

[Update 9:25PM: I'll sign off tonight with yet again one last act of DEFIANCE! - (actually it would be a wave-counting nightmare LOL)

Let there forever be a gap down at thy humble 1150 resting place for all to ponder. Gapeth down tomorrow and nay, don't look back. Taketh this market into thy depths of bear market hell where it belongs. Expose the evildoers for the frauds and charlatans they are. Amen.

And PS - maketh my TZA sing.]

Oh yeah the barbarians are holding the castle. The outer defenses have been breached and much blood has been shed. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S5L1icyE0dI/AAAAAAAAESo/yqC9ZaD1vro/s1600-h/spx1.png Also, many may not realize but the open chart gap that existed from 1150.23 - 1147.95 was closed with the 1150.24 finish.  Weird.

[Update 9PM: RUT squiggles.  Inverted H&S lies at 782 or so. That also is in confluence with (i) = price rise of (iii) thru (v).  Also thats about the small contracting triangle target. In addition the daily BB lies at 682.]

[Update 8:36PM: The RUT makes a nice wave pattern.  Overbought on the daily? Check. Running into resistance? Check.  Fulfilled a nice triple ZZ? Sure could be. The height of each ZZ price rise was a proportion of the previous price rise as shown by the colored bars. As a bonus, the inverted H&S target from its recent February low has been met.

Also the weekly (not shown) Bollinger Band's top is 671.85. The RUT is sticking its head well out of the top of it. ]

For all intents and purposes I have been starting my recent squiggle counts at the 1086 low, not the 1044 low. Although those two legs are on the same channel path, they don't seem to be of the same wave.  Thats what makes a big (X) triangle plausible.

I see a few basic pathing options from here and this Wilshire chart more or less shows them.

1. Intermediate (X) running triangle. Yeah I hate this count, and nothing relates fib-wise internally on the triangle and the B leg is really huge, etc,etc. However all the subwaves are zigzags no doubt which is really all thats required so in that regard it breaks no rules and it certainly was one big sideways trading range.  Also the "E" low is lower than the previous (Y) peak which is a good sign. This pathing option assumes the market is near an "A" wave top, will pull back deeper to B wave and head out for C wave and create some divergences on the C wave peak. This is the longest time option and most likely the highest price pathing.

I like to think the triangle option was created because the market intended to finish at the January high but for some reason it needed more time/price. So it formed a triangle to launch a final intermediate ZZ from a higher starting price point.  Thats how I like to think of it anyway to explain the retardedness of it all..

2. This is the final C wave of the triple ZZ and a wave [iii] of C is almost done topping.  This allows a shallow pullback for this retarded market and another stab at highs creating more negative divergences. This pathing is similar to option 1. Probably less time and price though.

3. We just melt up in a panic buying mode and P2 tops.

4. P2 is over, you bulltards will never see 1150 plus again and the market will keep you guessing and thirsty for many more months as it falls through every one of your "dip buys". LOL

In any regards, as I said last weekend, the key pivot is the 1125 gap or, at the least, the 1116 support level.
Internal structure of the last 12 days.
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