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Friday, March 12, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 March [Update 7:31PM]

[Update 7:31PM: Ok I want to tie in what I think people may have started to think about how a health care vote will potentially mark a top of a P2 rally.  I've been thinking about it and I heard Trader Steve comment on it on Kenny's board.  A vote doesn't have to mark the very tippy-top of course but I think the health care saga and P2 has become intertwined somewhat.  Both have lasted about the same amount of time.

So how will the vote go? Can EW theory predict how it will go? Well its simply amazing they actually passed 2 bills and they cannot get them squared away.  I think its more than fair to say that citizens have reached a point of wariness about further government takeovers of anything and the pack of BS that typically comes with peddling the "solutions".

As some of you surmised I am generally against the government meddling too much with anything.  The more they get involved, the more expensive it gets and the less quality and availability of whatever it is they get their hands on inevitably occurs.  Not to mention the sheer amount of corruption inevitably that comes with it. Such is the nature of gargantuan bureaucracies I think.  Its like trading with the herd. The herd will get you places but eventually it'll run off the cliff.  Bureaucracies tend to bloat and run off cliffs and the way they "repair" them is to...create...more...layers...of... bureaucracy, decade after decade until they cannot be sustained. We are at that point, yet certain politicians want to create more and more. At least as traders we can dust ourselves off and change direction.

In the end I think the massive moral hazard of having the government take care of anyone and everything has been tried a million times over the millennia and every one has ended in disaster and totalitarianism because that is man's nature.  Sure it can last a while and if your lucky enough to live in the "sweet zone" of such Ponzi's, you think its the best thing since slice bread. Well, our grandchildren won't live in that sweet zone. Sure they'll get cool toys (maybe), but that is a kid's distraction. In the end, its a harsh, adult world.

So again, the moral hazard of having every problem promised to be solved by the government is ultimately ruinous. I think we are reaching that stage in our nation's life cycle. Running a $220B deficit every month (had that record in Feb 2010) is obviously a problem so something has to give. There are no good endings here either. We either massively scale back or go against the will of the majority of people by taxing and confiscating ever more to fund the black hole.  But of course if they robbed every spare dime, we still couldn't fill a monthly budget deficit of $220B! So it doesn't work either way.

So needless to say, I think EW theory predicts that they will vote for healthcare and that it will, surprise!, fail. Social mood is recognizing the grave situation the country is in. Due to the nature of a Super-cycle wave (a) in Grand Super-cycle correction, and giving the government, at this moment, the  last keys to the barn is not what Americans want. They sense it. And how do they sense it? Underlying increasingly negative social mood.

So I think they go into the vote thinking it will pass and someone will "surprise to the downside" so-to-speak.

PS - I don't mean or want to start into a discussion about political parties here specifically. It never goes or ends well on message boards and alienates each other. We all think what we think.  What I rather say is that the preceding 200+ year Grand Super-cycle wave [III] in social mood dictated that we as a nation would wind up electing bum after bum who promised us the moon year after year because we have a system that was rigged for self plunder.  So we plundered it. And now we are slowly realizing that we have broke the bank. We just haven't fully owned up to it yet. But we are. Slowly and bravely.  The citizens lead and the government is (slowly) following. There is a natural lag time.  The fact that they have yet foisted this health care on us just yet means that the government is slowly starting to catch up with social mood demands of frugality and caution. Of course not everyone thinks this way as social mood manifests itself differently in each individual.  There are going to be permanently upset people no matter what happens. In the end a negative mood is what stifles economic expansion and rather causes contraction. And it cannot be altered until it runs its course. Wave theory tries to predict the degree of correction and expansion.

So I think health care failing will be the kickoff (more or less) for P3. It just makes sense.

[Update 6:18PM: Interesting stuff that supports P3 very soon]

[Update 5:05PM: added a 30 min SPX on gaps below. Plus I'm having problems getting into Disqus and bringing up comments - thats fixed now.}

[Update 4:40PM: I dug up a bigger chart of the 666 low. focus on the squiggles between blue 2 and blue 3.  This is essentially how this wave up from 1044 low is playing.  The mistake I made in 2009 is that blue Minor  2 should have been a blue minor E and the orthodox end of Intermediate (4) of P1.  The count for wave (5) should have started there and then I would have realized that I was looking at a major P1 low instead of 3 of (5) of [1] low.

The same I think applies here.  Look at all the gaps down on that chart between 875 and 666. Familiar?

I think a multi year or decade generational rally high is almost upon us. Sound silly yes? Well, its supposed to at this stage!

Again here are the open gaps from 1044.  Just like the open gaps from 875 to 666. Pretty much ocurred near the same spots too! Its just too weird.

I think we are witnessing an extended wave [v] just as we had at the 666 low.[v]+of+3+of+(5).png  It just kept going and going. At that 666 low, the more it ground on, the lower sentiment went. In this situation, the higher it grinds, the more bullish people get, but more importantly, the more complacent bulls get and the lack of bears is dangerous.

Here is the structure as I see it. We have easy key markers specifically the apex of the triangle.  I have a cluster of wave markers marking it as the coming P2 high.  The more this structure unfolds, the more it reveals its hand in my opinion.

As much as the market wanted to rally last year filling all those open gap downs, this one wants to sell off filling the gap ups. And this chart alone has over 10 points of open gaps.

As an aside the mistake I made at the 666 low is that an extended 5th wave should have been a big clue upside my head that the 666 low was the true bottom.  I like to learn from my mistakes. So if this proves to be an extended wave five next week, I will be marking it as a P2 top as extended fifths should be occurring, well, at a top (or bottom).
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