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Monday, March 15, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 March [Update 6:37PM]

[Update 6:38PM: Actually when I look at the SPX, I kind of still like the count of an extended wave [v] if this triangle plays out. I'll go with this on the SPX until it proves otherwise. In any case, some kind of triangle may be forming. Today's low cannot be breached for this count.]

[Update 6:20PM: Triangles can take time to develop.  The (c) leg looks like a complex leg which is a guideline of triangles. Often they get labeled too early and they can play out in sneaky ways. We have a clear (c) wave marker that cannot be breached. Thats the nice thing about triangles, the rules are pretty solid to follow.]

[Update 5:40PM: A revamped RUT chart. This shows it as already well into a [iv] triangle. Again, we have to be patient and let it unfold.  So far though, its looks like zigzags up and down which could be a triangle or a complex sideways correction. Again we have some pretty solid markers for the structures.]

[Update 5:10PM: I re-did BIDU chart and added a circle.  It sure looks parabolic. Reminds me of the gold chart to its $1226 high. See last chart below.]

Its obvious the DOW needs to make a new high and particularly closing high for 2010 to neutralize the current bearish DOW theory signal.  It is now showing strength.  A new intraday high above 10729 but not a new closing high would be typical of how the market likes to make everything a mess.

SPX closes highest all year and over 1150 again finally.

Overall the market appears be in corrective mode. It certainly counts best as an ABC down from peaks. It retraced a bit too far low today perhaps to consider this an extended 5th wave so I labeled the market in another manner with a Minute [iv] playing out.   Perhaps we are in (b) of [iv]. We'll find out tomorrow. FOMC meeting this week it seems the market is playing rope-a-dope.
And here would be the SPX. The SPX low was just a sliver under where the "e" is marked in (iv). That means something, just not sure what at the moment.  The Wilshire did the same. see above.
Financials though made a decent 5 wave move down from its high.
As far as BIDU perhaps its pricing in Google really leaving China. I cannot believe they are but its sure looking that way from the rumor-mill.

I don't know what to make of the price spike. Certainly I seen it trading in the $590's but the blip to $628 must  have been a monster block of shares all at once.   It gapped up yet again on heavy volume today but the candle makes a shooting star for the moment.  A gap down tomorrow would be bearish...I guess.

It hit all my possible targets and then some. It finally closed higher than Google.

Still waiting on the daily RSI trendline break to see how it responds as there has been 5 perfect hits on this trendline.  It seems important to stay above that RSI trendline so it'll be interesting to see what happens when it can no longer do so...whenever the hell that is!

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