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Friday, March 19, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 March [Update 6PM]

[Update 6PM: If we suppose the market has more correcting downward to do, then the first defensible support is the January peak of 1150.  I wouldn't think that necessarily holds because if the SPX makes it back to 1150 area, the DJIA will likely be below its January peak of 11729.  The big bull defense area is the 13:1 up day candle gap at 1123-1125 and/or the 1115 breakout gap just beneath.  In any event, a close beneath the 1123 gap is significant in my opinion as reversing a 13:1 day in P2 has been a rare event to date as I pointed out in this post: Closing beneath the 1115 breakout spot is even a bigger no-no for the bulls.

But again, I am getting ahead of myself here.

[Update 5:15PM: This DJIA count is about the best I can come up with at this moment.]

Big reversal candle up on volume at the end of day.  DJIA finished back above the January highs after slipping beneath it. Generally that is considered bullish and this just a correction.  But it was quad witching day so a lot of volatility at the end of day was to be expected.  Since the DJIA made a new high today, we can use that as a reference for a wave count.   It could be that its just i or (i) down and ii or (ii) will trace Monday.  Or this is corrective.  Either way, it can be interpreted numerous ways for now.

However, I think the peak price today in the DJIA can be considered an ED due to the evidence that prices quickly reversed and fell under 11708.  Again, ED patterns are a final pattern in a structure. So either we saw a P2 peak or at least a significant intermediate peak for now or a Minute [iii] or 3 wave peak.

We just don't have enough evidence for now.
The Wilshire could be considered a 5 wave move down in a falling wedge formation.  The wave i is kind of forced here, but that could be because the market was still making highs in certain indexes.  Otherwise its a double ZZ down and is considered corrective.
Health care vote on Sunday. I think its somehow tied to the fate of P2 one way or another.  I don't think people realize how much this will impact everything. Markets, people, sentiment, Congress, etc.  Its historic and its a massive takeover.

Welcome to the new relationship between you and your bureaucrat.
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