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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 March [Update 9:30PM]

[Update 9:30PM: I added the following link to my blogroll.  Check it out.  They seem to be able to gauge and predict with very good accuracy using a variety of consumer information, if the economy is expanding or contracting and at what rate. Despite the massive stimulus, their leading indicator shows the economy dipping into contraction on March 19th.

The market seems to lag a bit. This slight lag is exactly what Robert Prechter (and indeed EW theory) theorizes. Social mood (economic output or activity) turns first, markets (and government economic fundamentals lies  "stats" lag even more) 

[Update 9:05PM: If any stock is lagging, its got to be the king, XOM. Oil is again testing for a breakout of $83 and a run toward between $85 and 90.  Will an oil pop over resistance result in XOM getting its groove back and close that gap down it has?   The "driving season" is almost upon us maybe they get it started early.

It just seems "they" (I say that tongue-in-cheek) have XOM in their back pockets ready to run-up when they need it to and risk starts to wane a bit and takes a back seat to "safe" big stocks. Everything is getting run up afterall it seems. But XOM is such a widely held stock, it is a decent stock for wave patterns. 

Ultimately $90 oil is not bullish for the economy.  But oil can be said to be charting an ascending triangle. Are there a lot of shorts just above the rally high? 
A weekly move over the 50RSI may spark a rally in XOM. Weekly MACD is ready to crossover.  Its actually has a nice chart pattern. Long term, yes a huge triangle.  But it seems the [E] wave is not quite fleshed out just yet. But it might be in a matter of weeks or a month]
Still more triangle-type waves of zigzags up and down.  Primary count has it as a minor B wave triangle.  This count is easy to verify as any [e] wave low price cannot go below the [c] wave low price.  A break below [c] could still be a corrective wave but not this triangle count.  

So any break below [c] could be considered a failed triangle.  I'd guess that this is a good candidate for failure (because of the uncertainty of the overall larger count) so keep an eye out. 

And yeah, the market is garnering a lot of attention, but will it garner any less attention at 1200? 1220? 1240? Will it not be keenly watched just as much or more? I don't get that reasoning nor do I care.

So in that respect, yes we are watching for a boiling pot. Everyone is. And that will not go away. But it doesn't mean it won't boil. And now all the talking heads are all of a sudden cool, calm experts on sentiment and the markets: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-correction-in-gurus-crystal-ball-2010-03-29?dist=afterbell

It may show a possible triangle here, but unless we get a clean, fresh buying spree (perhaps the new month/quarter will bring some), I think any break upwards is going to be short-lived and prone for a big reversal.

Watched pot be damned. My favorite glib line "correction comes when everyone leasts expects it" is I think a most overused term and overrated.  3-4-5 weeks of steady gains are likely to be wiped out in only a few short days or even hours of trading.  That never seems to change. 

What also does not change is that this market will get sold to the mom and pops as much as possible before turning in a major primary peak. That is indeed likely happening to some degree now as my personal observations support that view.

The ROC's on the daily and weekly grow ever closer to dipping below the zero line.  The rally is waning.
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