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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 March

Triangle is still intact on the cash indexes.  There is not much to say at this stage. The 1st day of the month/quarter  is finally upon us.

Bear case: The market is (over) due for a nice rip-roaring distribution day and what better time to do it than on the 1st of the month/quarter. Also technically  everything has a bearish head and shoulder pattern  going for it.

Bull case: Price action and wave pattern (triangle) suggest that this market is consolidating for a thrust move to test higher levels.

The triangle pattern has to be respected as long as it holds.  It is a common mistake to label a triangle too early (perhaps as I have here). I am not sure if this is the case here or not.  For instance, a move up tomorrow could form a true [d] wave peak and then a new [e] wave could reverse down. People would think the triangle is "over" when the [e] wave occurs and that is exactly when the market will move big and reverse to the upside. [e] waves can have that effect.

So the bottom line is you have to give the triangle room to unfold further until it is no longer possible.  This is what happened in the sideways Nov to Dec action.
1161 is a key support level on the SPX. 1150-1153 is the major support level.

Its interesting that the market is gyrating around the 1170 axis as much as it had the 1070 (1071) axis.  Except this time the market has excess bullishness in some areas and signs of potential exhaustion.  However the last time, the market was able to break out of that gyrating axis and gain approx 41 points (to 1112 SPX) before correcting back to 1086 again.
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