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Thursday, March 4, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 March [Update 9:30PM]

[Update 9:30 PM: Ok I'll say it. The ideal way I see it all playing out is that the job report is a great report. Maybe even adds jobs who knows.  After all, they hired 1 zillion people to count the other two people. I very much look forward to a good job reports. Futures blast higher.

[EDIT: Don't get me wrong here, I am not rooting for people to lose their jobs, well maybe a few that deserve it, I just wish the government would stop lying about it all. People want honesty so they can trust again, even if the truth is bad. The government is breaking the trust bonds of society and that is not good at all. P3 will be partly about cleansing the perpetual lying - I hope.]

Market opens with a gap up "thrust" move out of the triangle, hits 1130 and that mark triggers the MOMO HFT machines and algo HAL1000's to go in reverse and sell sell sell. Market drops hard, no interested buyers.  After all, "everyone" does what GS does now yes?  This is a two-edged sword of course.  If everyone is on the same side of the trade....and the algos cannot handle certain "hiccups".....

Then the "news" comes out that Angela Merkel of Germany tells Greece to go beg somewhere else.  Dollar takes off, VIX breaks upwards over the downslope line its trapped under. Media hypes Greece.

No buyers interested and the selling keeps steadily increasing. Lunchtime sees some wandering prices (a few bounces) but still levels get taken out. 13:30 selling picks up hard.  Finishes near the low.

Hard down Monday. The selling continues next week until someone deals with Greece (thats the excuse). But this is P3 not P1, so it is not sure how the bailout dynamics is going to work for P3. As Prechter mentioned recently, he is not sure the same bailout mechanisms will happen for P3. I tend to agree in that there is NO political will to do more bailouts when the TOP 20 western banks just gave out nearly $300 BILLION in comp and bonuses doing "GOD's Work".

And oh yeah, that PIG of a bank, C will get hammered under $3 cause they got the nerve to have an unlimited bailout by the Treasury AS IF THE FRIGGIN treasury has any money in it which it doesn't.

Its all insane. You can keep calling for SPX 1300 or even 1200, but I dunno, my way seems like a more interesting way to go.

[Update 9PM: The Global Dow is tracing beautiful waves. Its one of my favorite indexes to count.  It just needs to put in a little pink (v) to the blue box target area and then roll the heck over.]

[Update 8PM: P1 low anniversary which occurred 6 March for the SPX and DOW and 9 March for the Nasdaq. Tomorrow is 5 March and Monday 8 March.

The SPX triangle squiggles below. Target is 1129.10.   That seems not very impressive so if that was the target, then I expect it to be a quick target and quick turn down. "thrust" type move.

Another thought that has been going around is that we get a panic buying "melt-up".  Ideally that would last
most of the day and end near/on high of day creating some new index highs and leaving others hanging oh-so-close. Then of course no one holds short over the weekend anymore which sets us up for a nice Black Monday.

[Update 6:56PM: EDIT: I mistakenly said (twice -duh) FAZ instead of TZA. I meant of course TZA when referencing the RUT below. Sorry about that.

The great things about EW is if you forecast something and it doesn't work out, inevitably another pattern reveals itself.

The RUT chart belows presents one such rare opportunity.  Sporting a steep 5 wave move, the squiggles reveals a very nice contracting triangle (see my first chart at the bottom) which by piecing the entire pattern together, should be a small 4th wave triangle at the top of a bull move.  Technically this matches with the RSI and MACD pattern. Likely a thrust move higher will result in double negative divergence.

We have several targets. 656 comes to mind as well as the overall 61.8% Fib marker of P2 at 660.17.  So we have a marker (triangle), we have a potential 10 point final wave (length of pink (i) = 10) and we have MAJOR Fib resistance at 660.  We also have a trendline.

Put all this together and if the move actually follows through, you have an excellent entry into TZA  Just count the last 5 waves up on the squiggle chart that should top between 656-660.  Find the heart of the wave iii and once the wave three is identified you can find a sideways four and  yes you can pick the very top and buy a TON of TZA.  Good risk/reward potential here. But as always due diligence and all that.

I think its a rather obvious play, so maybe it doesn't quite happen that way and has a blowoff top squeezing those short position stops.  But regardless, this is the kind of pattern I seek to play and feel very comfortable playing it.

The ironic thing about Elliott Waves is they keep tracing and tracing and then when they have revealed over 95% of the pattern is when people get dejected and disgusted and give up just when they should be looking intently.

I happen to think the next top tick of the RUT as described above will be its high for a long time to come. If not at least its due a pullback to support at 633 or even firmer support at 625! So its a winning play I think.
Triangles everywhere. A triangle signifies that final correction is occurring thus the next move up should be a topping move.
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