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Friday, March 5, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 March [Update 7:10 PM]

[Update 7:10PM: I showed this Apple chart earlier http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S5Exmx2V_-I/AAAAAAAAEPk/fEVUFm5nMtY/s1600-h/aapl.png Here is a closer look at the triangle. It looks good but the tipoff to me is the complex C wave. The guideline or practically a rule of triangles is that one wave should be a complex wave and that complex wave usually resides in the C wave position. This certainly qualifies. It has 5 waves up already out of the triangle. the move could be over already as a new high is all that was needed as a minimum.

Apple moved up on practically no news http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-investors-breath-a-sigh-of-relief-about-ipad-2010-03-05 is almost proof that this was a thrust out of a triangle that was going to happen regardless.]

[Update 6:25PM:  Here is a simple comparison on how I view the markets. The first chart is the NASDAQ in 2004 that reached a bullish rebound peak. It then corrected smartly.
But now after reaching a bullish peak, its on hyper-drive on low volume up moves which is bearish. This market is not healthy.  It cannot handle a correction as in 2004 which is why it squirts higher. But the pattern appears it could be an expanding ED and that pattern portends a big price collapse.

[Update 5:48PM: This is an exciting opportunity. This is not a bullish structure. It is a waning bearish structure. ]

[Update 5:37PM:  If the Wilshire squeaks a new high, this is the count.  This is actually a very bearish pattern and an ending diagonal, when it finishes, results in a price collapse back to the start which in this case is prices at (B). Oh man, I am more bearish than ever!]

[Update 5:14PM:  This actually looks pretty good. And the equality between (A) and (C) is nearly perfect.]

I venture to say that there is more bullishness exhibited today than at the market top in January based on comments alone. Yet the DJIA is still some 150 points from its high. A retest of the highs seems imminent because today's internal numbers were pretty darn good.  Over 13:1 up volume ratio day and normally I would be quite dejected or mulling over charts looking for new patterns but at this stage there is no point. But instead I am excited as the market has finally created a condition whereas any subsequent drop will likely keep the bulls hungry instead of going bearish too quickly.

The danger in this market is that there are now 5 open gaps on the SPX since only the 1044 low. A closing of today's gap would almost be indicative of exhaustion. So as I said a few nights ago, this market simply cannot afford to close anything.  New NASDAQ highs, the non-confirmation is obvious with the SPX, DJIA and even the Wilshire. And the qqqq's. Overseas markets we have Europe's FTSE squeaking a new high and the CAC and DAX far from theirs.  So the market seems to be on a limited mission as if there is a limited time window that is closing.


Today almost seemed like there was "panic buying" going on.  This is a dangerous market because I have seen how some diehard bears have finally cracked.  Now we just await to see if we go to a new bullishness extreme.
Still going with this squiggle count which implies that this structure is nearly over.
New 52 week highs today.  If next week closes lower, that would be HUGE indication of a record "buying climax". That is bearish.  So you see, the market has to keep going up or else it is doomed. Quite the conundrum it found itself in despite a massive rally that is exactly 1 year old tomorrow.
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