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Monday, March 8, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 March [Update 7:12PM]

[Update 7:12PM: NDX traced a small 5 wave move down.]

[Update 4:48 PM: Bidu has now hit 3 targets near the $537 mark simultaneously.  1) Possible big contracting triangle (4) breakout target   2) Major trendline hit.   3) Small intraday ascending triangle target $537

Today looked like a breakout move yet it didn't really have great breakout volume as compared to the last 2. Also the RSI trendline was bought today on the hit. Will be interesting to see when the line breaks how much it sells.  Yes it was a horrible trade from before I admit, but the trade depended on the market cooperating in a wave 3 down which it didn't. So really, any freakin short since then was getting humped big time pretty much. But at some point in time prices and technicals look attractive for a short nibble.
The market gave the impression of a consolidating move today to assault the 1148 mark tomorrow.   However the squiggles shows that the move up may be waning for now and might need some more consolidation.  The RUT had a small triangle perhaps again. It certainly looks extended.

The market is still all about the Industrials.  And this chart had yet to break out of some forces that are holding it in.  The RSI line and the middle trendline with the arrows are 2 such notables.  Also the ROC.  I left the triple ZZ labels up.

Notice the 2 black lines I threw on the chart that are painting price points over the last 4 months. Is the complex wave that traced in December to January 10729 peak just a big B wave of a large triangle?  Its one such possibility.  The wave was certainly complex and at least one such leg should be inside a triangle.   On other indexes this leg was not so complex and those indexes have broken out (RUT and NASDAQ).

Anyways, its just food for thought. The market may not have tipped its final hand just yet. It still is open to a few possibilities.
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