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Saturday, March 6, 2010

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update Sat 9:18 PM EST]

[Update 9:17PM: Berkshire looks like the HFT machines have been bong hitting it. Again it looks like the algos were programmed to buy the steep trendline. In fact every stock and index has the same steep looking trendline as of recently. What happens when they break? The RSI looks sickly and the stochs do to.  This sucker is ripe for a fall. Overbought and at resistance.] 
[Update 8:56 PM  World markets update. Austrailia hit the blue target box and looks good as an ABC.  Monday's trading will tell a lot about what world markets are truly doing.
Japan, like the DJIA looks like it had a small ED at the top. 
[Update 7:35PM: Since this week is considered very important for the wave structure and markets in general, I have fashioned an SPX cash index battle map.  The barbarian hordes (stupid shorts like me) are holding the line at 1150. Across the field of battle is General Maximus G Sachsimus with a battle-hardened army of many legions ready to do slaughter.]
[Update 10:45PM: Probably the best way to label the indexes that achieved new highs is to simply adjust the recent ABC's. It would still be a triple zigzag.]


[Update Sat 10:30AM: The market is rallying on borrowed time.]
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/construction-developer-says-banks.html

[Update Sat 8:30 AM: Reading these little financial news "snippets" drives me bonkers. I don't know why I do it. Not only do they get quotes from "experts" to support the trash they are printing, but the facts themselves are usually just either propaganda or plain wrong.

Here is the particular one where I wanted to scream:
"Research done by economists has shown that such high levels of debt can cause a drag on economic growth."

You mean it took research to make that conclusion? Wow, lets give those guys an economic grant.  They just came to the conclusion that $5.6T (yes thats a T as in "trillion") of the next 10 year's budget going to interest payments could be a drag. Bummer. But we might need more research for that.


Any 11th grader with a basic education in math and simple finances could make that simple conclusion. Oh wait, sorry they don't teach that stuff.

"By 2020, the public debt will reach $20T"

I venture to say that level will not be reached as the complicated Ponzi system will break long before then. The market will take care of what man cannot do for himself. A "debt commission". Gee, I thought that was Congress' job.

Its not the market that frustrates me. And if someone tells me to shrug it off with the attitude of "what can we do?" well I dunno maybe thats why I blog.  Its doing something. I'll help beat the drums that the fiscal nightmare the world is currently in is NOT a normal paradigm and has only existed for the last 30 years or so and that mass psychosis (a peaking asset mania and the gambling culture) has gripped the entire world. EW theory states that will not last much longer.  Indeed it cannot. The laws of nature cannot be ignored forever.]

http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/05/news/economy/cbo_obama_budget/index.htm

Obviously everyone is throwing in the towel, trying to discredit EW theory or disgusted with everything. Sure these last months or so haven't gone exactly as planned, but that is likely because the bearishness went too extreme too quickly on the drop.

These are big markets and the big waves are not for the queasy!  P3 is the king granddaddy and he won't want to be taking many riders.

But as we move higher, bullishness is quickly getting back to a spot that enables another market top.  Its going to work the same again. Too many bulls, no bears = market corrects.  Thats how it works each and every time.  Yes, the volume ratio was impressive an all that but it sure seems contrived to have that final stick save spike to paint the final numbers.  The daily volume bar was no higher than anything. It means little at this stage other than to plant visions of great SPX highs (1200, 1300 blah blah blah) to come. Hey lets clear 1150 before we celebrate yes? Last I checked the DOW was still off a bit from its high. And so what about the RUT. That thing is going to move so hard against you both up and down, that how can anyone call the friggin index anything other than what it is: A high beta raping machine.  And yeah I played my squiggle chart and have a boatload of TZA sub $7.72 and holding thru the weekend.  I mean really its getting quite piggish.

So again, if we move up another 2% what do you think thats going to do to bullish extremes? I mean really you guys are already so confident that your posting quite freely with complete guards down.The VIX is low 17 so I guess you would.  Gee, lets get it to 14!

I'll tell you what else: It is MORE bearish if the market squeaks a new high above 1150 rather than not! Why? Because look at this chart below. Its a freaking mess of sideways waves that are biased upwards in an expanding pattern. That is not a bullish formation.  In fact, if the thing is one giant bearish ending diagonal guess whats going to happen to prices when the pattern finishes? Yes they'll collapse back to July 2009 prices!

I may have gotten some squiggles wrong, but this market is not tracing any kind of bullish EW patterns that I can see.  All I see is "ABC" type moves and that is not a great way for a "bull market" to develop. This market is on borrowed time. The 5 open chart SPX gaps since the 1044 low worth some 10 points is a testament to that. Not to mention all the others from further below.

I said back early in 2009 that a bear rally will most likely wind up resembling some kind of 5 wave move just to throw people for a loop. I was right about that. But its not a 5 wave move.  The internal structures are crap.

If the SPX goes just above 1150 and obeys this expanding pattern without violating it, I will put on the record that there will be a hard crash to sub-900 in a very short period of time once it turns. And that is based on my crap EW chart below.

And to all you imbeciles who keep coming on my blog to dog me, screw you. I heard enough already. So you better quit or the banning will begin. It was fun having a Yahoo board for a while, but thats enough. I don't mind if you criticize my counts or post your own, but if your doggin me, I'm calling off the dogs and your gone.

Thanks and now have a nice weekend.
Here is 2007, yeah it looks the same and it may well play the same. If the SPX makes a new high at 1158 then you have (C) = (A) type stuff for this P2 rally.
5 unclosed gaps worth some 10 points. Yeah. Lemme keep buying on that.  And oh yeah, if even one of them closes, particularly the one from today, thats likely exhaustion. Of particular note is the trendlines on the Ultimate oscillator and CCI. I believe a break of those would trigger a sell signal.
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