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Friday, March 12, 2010

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update Sat 1:05 PM EST]

[Update Sat 1:05PM: Although applying EW patterns to individual stocks can be tricky and sometimes inappropriate (or hazardous), C is about in a league of its own when it comes to amount of shares (some 28B) and the daily amount traded (sometimes billions).  This dwarfs entires markets of not too long ago decades past so it is fair to say that some good wave patterns exist.

I revamped my C chart to suspect a truncated top.  In this chart presented recently http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S2DpmFueBKI/AAAAAAAADuk/YO5GZJCTMvc/s1600-h/c.png you can see the developing positive divergence and anticipated an ending diagonal triangle to make a new squeaker low under $3.13. It did finally at $3.11. I had labeled my wedge too early (and suspected that might have been the case when I made the chart).   In any event, the violent retrace up caused me to rethink the pattern start point.

In a way, the entire market depends on C holding above that magical $3 mark. It can wallow there but under $3 starts to garner "attention".   And after the recent Lehman accounting "discovery", questions arise to what other banks are engaging in the same tricks to cover up likely staggering unrealized losses.  The recent Citibank investment conference that provided the "spark" to fulfill the chart patterns, was of course closed to the press.  Do you think they spared any expense in staging the conference?  Why should they? You an I got their backs.

The bearish engulfing candle is a bit ominous looking floating above the recent gap up.

With my luck lately, now that I have painted C's chart, watch it move to $6 by May.  Of course if C moves to $6, that would likely mean the market too is not yet done its bullish maneuvers.

Ponder this chart.  Its just a quick sketch-up. I kind of winged it a bit. But the point is if you accept that 2000 was start of bear market and we are in an expanded flat, you can see that if the c wave only took 17 months to finish versus over 7 years for the rest of the wave, well it don't look right.  Also expanded flat price targets certainly have not been met.

I like to look at it like this: The market rebounded hard in a giant vigorous primary wave [2] that will build the energies needed to crash down hard and wipe out the rest of the gains since at least 1990.

Seem far fetched? Why would it?  Why would going back to merely 1990 prices (for starters) be the end of times?  Yeah everyone would be forced to balance their budgets. And well, we'll get by. I like to think that there is a lot of good out there.  Out of a burnt forest, comes fresh roots. Always.

Oh, and it also will make the biggest head and shoulders pattern ever in log scale.
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