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Thursday, April 22, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 April [Update 7:30PM]

[Update 7:30PM: The RUT has certainly hit the 730 target I pointed out last night http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S8-pnkHq9nI/AAAAAAAAE6Q/QPDhwbVZhV0/s1600/rut10.png  It closed above its monthly bollinger band.

So again, nothing is certain here as there is a lot of pulling going on in both directions on the markets.  To me that signals a significant top is being put in, whether its P2 or not we'll see. But the RUT has overlap since the break out of the [iv] triangle.  The alternate count I picked up the idea from EWI.  
[Update 6:50PM: I often say that the DJIA is what really matters.  You cannot ignore its count or targets.  Its seems to always do its own thing. When other indexes form triangles, the DOW does not and vice versa it seems.  It also has its unique blue box, no overlap areas. This DOW count of course is no where perfect, but again, it violates no rules and follows the guidelines of alternation between pairs of corrective waves perfectly.

In the end, we can argue what the counts are, but for now, I am interested in seeing where this market may be headed and trying to count the way.  After the 13:1 up day, I said if it stays in channel, it will likely go toward its massive inverted head and shoulders target. A generous target is approx 11366.   Now we are but a big ascending triangle thrust away.
Here is the 10 minute chart with the potential triangle.  I revamped this entire up move tonight and it makes sense that if the triangle thrusts up and hits its triangle target, it will have come real close to hitting its overall massive inverted Head and Shoulders target of 11366 as well.

We could be entering that final spasm phase I was alluding to in yesterday's post. Crazy stage it seems. Even Netflix flew past $100. Apple at $265, BIDU, AMZN etc, etc. We could be forming yet another triangle but I don't necessarily think thats the case. It doesn't appear to be the case on the NASDAQ (new high), Wilshire or RUT (new high) but it could be on the SPX and DJIA if we have a drop down tomorrow for an "e" wave.

Here is the Wilshire. Today's rally high carried past any triangle line.  If there was a triangle, today's low would have been the (e) wave most likely and now we are thrusting out. No matter, the near term moves work out the same regardless.

It seems the market is entering a possible blowoff phase for those who still believe in the larger P3 bear count.. Volume has been steadily increasing and sell spikes are occurring.  Distribution?
A snapshot of the DJIA:
I'll have more later for sure.
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