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Monday, April 5, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 April [Update 8:15PM]

[Update 8:15PM: Looking at the RUT from 3 differing charts leads to a synergy of a target of around 705.

First, the weekly is nearly overbought on the RSI. However there is a breakdown gap that the RUT seems to want to challenge.  704-705 would fill the gap.  The 2008 breakdown gap area is the best bet for the next resistance area.
The daily shows the proposed count for the RUT. Doing some Fibonacci calculations leads to some interesting relationships.  (Y) = almost a dead nuts Fib .786 to (W).

At 705, (Z) would exactly equal (Y) for a 1:1 relationship.
Finally the 10 minute chart shows the squiggle count. The recent triangle didn't look like a triangle but it behaved like one and broke no rules.  The triangle target is around 704-705.  So three charts, three targets that have a synergy to it.


We got our expected rise out of a triangle formation today.   The question is, how large (at what wave degree) is the triangle? I say this because there are 2 ways to label it. 1) A larger ascending triangle (which is what I showed on Friday) http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S7T86p4EYeI/AAAAAAAAEoQ/8CG2r8s7lIc/s1600/wilshire10.png

The Wilshire shows the ascending, larger pattern:

Or a wave degree smaller triangle something like I showed on the DJIA http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S7UDxg8PYYI/AAAAAAAAEog/YRjMUdmxDrQ/s1600/djia.png

Here is the potential smaller triangle pattern (likely a Minute [iv]) on the SPX as an alternate:

The difference of course is if its a smaller degree fourth wave or a larger B wave. This is important as if its a smaller degree, than the rise may be almost over. If its a larger degree, then the target is higher and we should expect a more protracted runup.

I say all this because the Wilshire 5000 reached three significant milestones today: 1) The weekly 200MA 2) The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of P1.  3) Overbought on the weekly RSI above 70.
So all in all, we have a lot of key markers on the indexes that will tell us whats going on over this next few trading days. The larger ascending triangle must be respected. Its price target on the SPX is around 1210.

Oil is breaking upwards and XOM just crossed the 50 RSI mark on the weekly so maybe it wants to close that gap eventually:
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